Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, April 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT KBVO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IS KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY AT THE TIME. MAY STILL SEE
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SURFACE BASED AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES.
THESE SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING. HOWEVER...
THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AFFECTS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND 20-22Z AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST  THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
THEN  ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT  INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY.  COLD FRONT  ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL AND  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO REMAIN
CAPPED MUCH OF TODAY.  ANTICIPATE CAP LESSENING BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OR LLJ HELP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.   DAYTIME POPS  REFLECT UNCERTAINTY
IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT POP BASED ON CAP
EROSION.  IN ANY EVENT THE AREA NORTH OF I-44 MOST
VULNERABLE FOR TALL THUNDER.

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MOST VULNERABLE FOR  SIGNIFICANT THUNDER
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FRIDAY IS THE ONLY DAY THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITHOUT
AT LEAST A  MENTION OF A  CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF LOOKS PARTICULARLY WET IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIME PERIOD.                                   GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
104 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
        44.
	ONSET....AROUND 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AROUND 5 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
AS THE STORMS TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCES OF TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
AND 80 MPH WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.

MOISTURE WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACTIVATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

OKZ054-081930-
OSAGE OK-
150 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 149 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF APPERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BURBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...BURBANK...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...
PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...GRAINOLA AND SUNSET LAKE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9616 3677 9616 3654 9673 3656 9675
      3655 9681 3671 9693 3675 9689 3675 9683
      3677 9682 3679 9676 3694 9676 3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 230DEG 59KT 3691 9684