Flash Flood and Flooding in Ohio, June 16 to 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING. SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...PROMPTING A
WARNING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH.

CDFNT IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING
THE CONVECTION SWD WITH IT. SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PCPN IN
THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE
N TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS SHOWING
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN TO OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING (PWATS LESS THAN 1") WHILE THE NAM HOLDS
THE DRIER AIR AND FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PWATS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 2". OVERALL THINK THE GFS IS PUSHING
THE FRONT A TAD TO FAR SOUTH. WEAK LIFT WILL COME FROM A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ALSO FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT
OVER ILLINOIS/ INDIANA TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TUESDAY AGAIN SHOW A SKINNY CAPE WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO NOT IMPRESSIVE (BARELY MOIST ADIABATIC).
GIVEN THE ABOVE THINK THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS MORE CLOUDS
ARE FORECASTED BUT HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY HIGHS (LOW TO MID 80S) AS IT WONT TAKE
MUCH TO HEAT THINGS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MODEST LLJ ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACRS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG WITH MORE SUBDUED HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A DIGGING MID LVL TROUGH ACRS
ERN CANADA WILL FIRST LIFT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHETHER
THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE SO HAVE FOCUSED ON JUST
LEAVING CHC POPS AS THE LATEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN PUSHES NORTH
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MORE BONAFIDE DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PWATS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FIRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL IT
AFFECTED THE NRN TAFS...MISSING CVG/LUK. CMH/LCK WILL BE AFFECTED BY
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FCST
PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO CDFNT WHICH IS FCST TO DROP S INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NRN INDIANA AND
NW OH WILL SAG SWD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...BUT SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE THE PCPN/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARRIVING AT KDAY AROUND 07Z...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING SEWD
OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CLOUDS THAT ARE FCST WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. LINGERED VCSH ACROSS THE SRN
TAFS ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT DUE TO CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE
THUNDER MIXED IN TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
304 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-161915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
304 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES. IN
ADDITION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THEIR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OHZ026-034-035-161915-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
304 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THEIR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.