Damaging Wind in New Mexico, May 14, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WEST
WINDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EVEN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SPOTTY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. NO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE BORDERLAND. THEN BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... A RETURN
OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IS FORECAST WHICH MAY BRING BACK STORM
CHANCES FOR OUR AREA MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR "UNUSUAL" SPRING WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS FOR NOW TO BE
STICKING AROUND INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON AT LEAST THREE MORE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS FROM THE PACIFIC WEST NORTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE
BORDERLAND NEXT SATURDAY...TUESDAY...AND THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
HAVE SPOTTY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND ALSO THE
CHARACTERISTIC SPRINGTIME GUSTY WINDS BUT WITHOUT THE WIDESPREAD
DUST (AND NO COMPLAINTS). WE ARE IN EL NINO CONDITIONS (AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOL THROUGH THE WEST OF THE YEAR) BUT IT IS NOT
A CLASSIC SET UP AND INSTEAD OF GETTING THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS
DIRECTLY FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS
DEFLECTING THE PATTERN AND THE SYSTEMS COME WITH ONLY SPOTTY
MOISTURE AND OR TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE WHICH STAYS MAINLY TO
OUR EAST. A NICER EXCEPTION WAS THE WIDESPREAD EVENT LAST TUESDAY
AND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND ANY MOISTURE CHANCES SHOULD BE
SLIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH PROBABLY THE L;EAT FAVORED AREA BEING THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY AND THE WESTERN AND EAST FRINGES AND
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS MAINLY P.M. HOURS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER
(MIXING COMPLICATIONS) THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THE WINDS WILL
BE LIMITED AS WITNESSED TODAY WITH THE WIND ADVISORY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MAINLY WEST SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY (DROPPING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWLAND TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S) WITH MORE WIND AND SPOTTY SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA). A BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WHICH MEANS DRIER WARMER AND LESS WINDS.
GETS MOREL INTERESTING LATER MONDAY AFTN/EVENING INTO TUESDAY
WITH A GULF SURGE FORECAST INTO HE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SETS UP A CLASSICAL DRY LINE
INTRUSION WEST INTO OUR CWA EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE FROM ABOUT 21Z
MONDAY TO 09Z TUESDAY WITH GREATER POPS FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN STRONG
TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS BUT AGAIN EAST OF A ALM-ELP LINE WOULD BE
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. THIS SURGE AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE
SHORT LIVED WITH THE DRIER WESTERLIES SCOURING IT OUT BY MONDAY
MIDDAY AT LATEST. AND AT THIS TIME...A THIRD TROUGH ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO ZIP TROUGH THE CWA NEXT THURS WITH LESS IMPACT (MAINLY
WIND) AND MOISTURE STAYING MUCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z-16/00Z...
STRONG SW FLOW CONTINUE THRU PD. P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250
THRU 08Z. AFT 08Z SCT-BKN050-070 BKN200 WITH ISOLD -TSRA BKN040CB
POSSIBLE THRU 18Z MAINLY WEST OF I-25 AND MOUNTAINS. AFT 18Z
SCT-BKN070-090 BKN200 WITH ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -TSRA BKN040-060CB FAR
WEST AND NORTH. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM SW AT 15-25G35KTS THRU 03Z
AND AFT 15Z BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS FROM 03Z-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND 15 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 15 PERCENT THROUGH THIS TIME BUT COULD SEE LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  85  61  77  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           58  84  57  76  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              55  79  51  74  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              55  79  54  74  47 /  10  10  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  56  39  50  37 /  10  20  20  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  75  49  72  45 /  10  10  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             45  68  42  62  40 /  20  20  20  20   0
DEMING                  52  80  48  74  43 /  20   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               50  77  44  71  43 /  10  10  20  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      62  84  60  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               54  85  56  77  47 /  10   0  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            60  89  60  81  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              56  78  56  70  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  86  59  78  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  83  55  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          59  79  57  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           51  79  49  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   54  78  49  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                56  79  53  74  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               59  80  57  74  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 47  65  46  59  41 /  10  20  20  10   0
MESCALERO               43  65  42  59  38 /  10  20  20  10   0
TIMBERON                44  66  44  58  41 /  10  20  20  10   0
WINSTON                 43  66  40  63  37 /  20  20  20  20   0
HILLSBORO               48  74  45  70  41 /  10  10  20  10   0
SPACEPORT               50  77  46  73  42 /   0  10   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  66  41  61  37 /  20  20  20  20   0
HURLEY                  45  70  42  65  40 /  20  10  20  10   0
CLIFF                   48  73  42  69  39 /  10  20  20  20   0
MULE CREEK              38  69  35  65  33 /  10  20  20  30   0
FAYWOOD                 47  72  44  67  41 /  20  10  20  10   0
ANIMAS                  51  77  45  73  45 /  10  10  10  10   0
HACHITA                 50  78  46  74  43 /  10  10   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  78  46  74  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              48  73  43  70  43 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ404>407.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ403>407-410-
     411.

TX...NONE.
&&

20/26 NOVLAN / GRZYWACZ