Hail in Nebraska, August 27, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE RIDGING
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. A FEW TEMPS NEARING 90 ACROSS SW NEB WERE MORE SUN PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON. CAPE IS PLENTIFUL...WITH 2500 TO 4000
J/KG...HOWEVER SHEAR IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...20 TO 25 KTS. THE NAM
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE SHEAR ACROSS N CENTRAL TO 25 TO 30 KTS FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND 03Z. THUS SEVERE THREAT IS THERE...BUT NOT GREAT
AND IS BEST WHEN THE SHEAR IS GREATEST. PWATS ON THE INCREASE...WITH
MODELS BRING VALUES ABOVE 1.50 INCHES TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL.
STORM MOTION IS 10 TO 15 KTS SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING FLOODING RAINS.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS PUSH EAST WITH SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND. NOSE
OF THE NOCTURNAL LL JET IS ACROSS EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IOWA SO
ANY MCS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
IN THE WRAP AROUND...HOWEVER MORE GENERALLY AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
CLOUDS TO HELP SLOW WARMUP IN THE EAST...WHERE HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND
80. MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARM/DRY AIR FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY. IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE DRY TRAJECTORY IS NOT AS STRONG...
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT
IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THAT TIME...THE THETA-E RIDGE ON THE HIGH
PLAINS BECOMES STRONG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO MORE THAN
AN INCH. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY INCREASING...THERE IS STILL A
LACK OF A BOUNDARY OR OTHER FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE THAN
SPOTTY CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY.

TURNING TO WEATHER...LIGHT EAST WIND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA COULD FAVOR FOG EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL (0-
1KM AND BOUNDARY LAYER) RELATIVE HUMIDITY INDICATES 80-85 PERCENT AT
THE HIGHEST. OF THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (SREF...MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE)...ONLY THE MET INDICATES FOG. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL EXCLUDE THE MENTION OF
FOG FOR NOW.

AS CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 0-6KM
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LOWER AND THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY LESS THAN 1000J/KG...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY LINE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT KVTN AND
CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP. LESS CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT/IMPACT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...HOWEVER DID INCLUDE A VCTS FOR NOW.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-282045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
335 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 /235 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH
TO BROKEN BOW COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EAST OF THIS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
531 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

NEZ038-272315-
CUSTER NE-
531 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CALLAWAY...OR 15 MILES WEST OF BROKEN BOW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILLDALE...CALLAWAY...OCONTO AND LODI.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4130 10007 4140 10004 4137 9965 4112 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 281DEG 14KT 4132 9992

ROBERG