Flash Flooding and Flooding in Missouri, May 29 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A very active weather pattern looks to continue for a few more days
across the region, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms through
Saturday.  Thankfully, confidence is increasing in a few dry days
late this weekend into early next workweek.

Starting out this morning, yet another area of elevated convection
is developing across northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, as a
relatively weak low level jet overspreads a 925-850 MB baroclinic
zone just southwest of the CWA.  Convection will continue to blossom
over this area through sunrise, lifting north and east with time. No
widespread severe weather is expected with this activity, though
periods of heavy rain and frequent lightning will be likely with any
thunderstorms.

Convection is then expected to expand in coverage through much of
the day today, with the approach of a few pieces of shortwave
energy currently to our west and southwest.  This increased upper
level support should result in fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms through the day today.  Convection is then expected to
continue tonight, with weak height falls continuing to overspread
the region, along with the approach of a frontal boundary from the
northwest.  While a few isolated severe thunderstorms aren't
entirely out of the question today, the overall threat appears
rather low.  Of more concern will be multiple rounds of heavy rain
given relatively saturated soils.  Will continue to coordinate an
expansion of the Flash Flood Watch with surrounding offices; while
exact counties haven't quite been worked out yet, some expansion to
the east should be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The aforementioned front looks to make slow progress into the
forecast area through the day Saturday, likely resulting in a slow
end to the rain from the northwest to the southeast during the
latter portion of the day.

That front should then be to our south by Sunday morning, resulting
in what is looking like a rather nice day, with cool temperatures
and lower dewpoints building into the area. Highs on Sunday may
struggle to reach 70 degrees in a few locations.

Warmer temperatures and more seasonable humidity will begin to
return the area during the middle of next week, but right now, it
appears that increasing heights aloft may keep widespread
precipitation chances at bay.  That will be a welcomed opportunity
to allow things to dry out a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The storm system in place over the Ozarks will move slowly if at
all east into tonight as at combination of ample moisture,
instability and an area of low pressure combines to bring
additional rounds of rainfall to the region. The depth of the
moisture will bring MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities to the
region through Saturday morning. Some terminals may potentially
see LIFR conditions for brief periods if heavy rain moves over
location.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR MOZ066-068>070-
     077>082-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Hatch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
239 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
INITIALLY DISCREET CELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT HAVE SHOWN ROTATION
AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOZ104-291845-
TANEY MO-
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TANEY COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POWERSITE...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORSYTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRADLEYVILLE...BROWNBRANCH...EDGEWATER
BEACH...FORSYTH...KIRBYVILLE...KISSEE MILLS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE
AND TANEYVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BULL
SHOALS LAKE AND LAKE TANEYCOMO.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3664 9317 3681 9303 3681 9277 3679 9276
      3664 9287 3654 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 214DEG 20KT 3664 9306

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOZ101-292030-
MCDONALD MO-
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF NOEL...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ANDERSON...GOODMAN...LANAGAN...NOEL AND
PINEVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BIG
SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3676 9462 3675 9418 3649 9431 3650 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 194DEG 18KT 3645 9446

HATCH