Several days of rain caused roads to become flooded and even impassable in a couple of cases. The final heavy rain event that produced locally 3 to 4 inches of rain was overnight on the 10th into the morning of the 11th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Several days of rain caused roads to become flooded and even impassable in a couple of cases. The final heavy rain event that produced locally 3 to 4 inches of rain was overnight on the 10th into the morning of the 11th. A cold front began slowly approaching the region on the 7th. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms broke out over the course of several days.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 10:48 PM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 516 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 BAND OF CONVECTION INTO SEMO WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER SRN IL INTO SW INDIANA. MEAGER VEERED WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH BOTH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC/BLAYER FOCUS PRECLUDING SEVERE STORMS FOR THE MOST PART...EVEN IN THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH HAS REMAINED FROM SW ILLINOIS INTO SE MISSOURI. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A REASON FOR THE TREND TO CHANGE GIVEN WE ARE AT MAX INSTABILITY...WITH LITTLE SHIFT IN THE AXIS EXPECTED. WATCHES WILL BE TERMINATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS NEEDED. OTHER THAN A SMALL CHANCE OF A WARNING OR TWO FOR A MARGINAL EVENT...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY SUFFICE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SEVERE STORMS. ..CN.. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN MCS ACROSS CENTRAL MO WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD TOWARD SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON...PROMPTING A TOR WATCH AHEAD OF IT FOR THE FAR WRN COUNTIES. CURRENT LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG OVER SERN MO...AND SRLY MOIST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS...DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE REGION SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE MCS AS IT CONTINUES TO APPROACH SERN MO. WE WILL SEE IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN OR INCREASE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE MCS WILL MAKE A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NWRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. THE FINAL PUSH OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE MON. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE COMMON ON MON ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FORCING OF AN EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SOME TSTMS...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS. VIRTUALLY ALL PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET MON. DEEP WRLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID/UPPER LOW WILL ENSURE DRY AND GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING FARTHER NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW, AND HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS, KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN KEPT PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THURSDAY. GFS SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER OUR AREA. WITH ECMWF SHOWING THESE FEATURES MUCH FARTHER NORTH, IT PRODUCES MUCH LESS PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION. AGAIN, STUCK CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS, AND WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT STAYED PRETTY CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME LACK OF CONFIDENCE BECAUSE OF THE ECMWF AND EVEN CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. BY THE WEEKEND, GFS AND ECMWF COME INTO SOME BETTER ALIGNMENT, SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE PAH FA ON SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN AGAIN SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH CURRENTLY WILL BE THE BEST TIMING FOR OUR AREA TO BE DRY SLOTTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM-UP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, DESPITE THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 NEW AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SEMO MOVING NE. WILL CARRY VCSH AND MENTION -SHRA AT KPAH AND KCGI TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KEVV/KOWB. LIGHT SE WINDS THE RULE. MAIN PUSH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES AS WELL. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1018 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-111000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1018 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THAT MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS LATE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Eight to ten inches of water was over a road approximately eight miles west of Marble Hill. A foot of water was over Highway 51 about one-half mile north of Highway 72.
A couple of main roads were impassable, including Highway M north of Lithium and U.S. Highway 61 two to three miles from Brewer.
A trained spotter measured a total rainfall of 3.50 inches over the past 24 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 570930, 570931, 570929.