Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, March 31, 2015

Name: Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, March 31, 2015
Start: 2015-03-31T19:10
End: 2015-03-31T20:32
Location: Missouri

March 31, 2015 · NWS MEG · 2 events in 1 county or zone

An upper level disturbance moved across the Mid-South during the afternoon and evening hours of March 31, 2015. The disturbance interacted with an unstable airmass and produced scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Mid-South.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 5:59 PM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 5:59 PM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 5:43 PM CST, 1 hour 27 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-020145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR GREATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE VIA PHONE OR SOCIAL
MEDIA.

JLH

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:42 PM CST, 2 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             8 SW WATER VALLEY       34.08N 89.73W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WATER VALLEY.

0328 PM     HAIL             LAMBROOK                34.33N 90.97W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN LAMBROOK, AR.

0350 PM     HAIL             6 W BRUCE               33.99N 89.45W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BRUCE.

0400 PM     HAIL             6 WSW CLARKSDALE        34.17N 90.67W
03/31/2015  E2.75 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR CLARKSDALE.

0431 PM     HAIL             WATER VALLEY            34.16N 89.63W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR WATER VALLEY.

0530 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NEW ALBANY.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:46 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
546 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             RECTOR                  36.26N 90.29W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               AR   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR RECTOR.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 5:07 PM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             12 NE NEW ALBANY        34.61N 88.87W
03/31/2015  E2.00 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   PUBLIC

            HEN EGG SIZE HAIL NORTHEAST OF NEW ALBANY

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 5:17 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             BALDWYN                 34.50N 88.63W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR DRY CREEK ROAD.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 5:23 PM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             4 SE SELMER             35.13N 88.54W
03/31/2015  E1.25 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN SELMER

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 5:50 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             15 S SAVANNAH           35.01N 88.24W
03/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       HARDIN             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

AJC

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:12 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Dunklin

When: March 31, 7:10 PM CST to 7:15 PM CST
Where: Dunklin County, Kennett
Measured: 0.88 in hail
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 36.230, -90.070

Thunderstorm Wind, Dunklin

When: March 31, 8:27 PM CST to 8:32 PM CST
Where: Dunklin County, 0.81 mi NW of Hollywood to Hollywood
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 36.058, -90.190

Straight line winds knocked down large tree limbs in Hollywood.

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Missouri in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in Missouri, March 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 568139, 568140.