Damaging Winds in Missouri, July 13, 2015

Name: Damaging Winds in Missouri, July 13, 2015
Start: 2015-07-13T16:42
End: 2015-07-13T16:43
Location: Missouri

July 13, 2015 · NWS DVN · 2 events in 1 county or zone

Hot and humid conditions combined with an upper level disturbance to produce afternoon thunderstorms. High instability resulting a couple of damaging wind events in northeast Missouri.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

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Tropical storms and surge
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Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.

Hot and humid conditions combined with an upper level disturbance to produce afternoon thunderstorms. High instability resulting a couple of damaging wind events in northeast Missouri.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 2:45 PM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 2:45 PM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INCREDIBLY HIGH SFC DPTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BEING POOLED ACRS THE DVN CWA...AND ENOUGH
AMBIENT HEATING FOR TEMPS AROUND 90. THIS MAKING FOR EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 6000 TO OVER 7000 J/KG ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA INTO CENTRAL IL. EARLIER 18Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM WEDGE/CAP ALOFT CENTERED AROUND H85 MB KEEP A LID
ON THE CAULDRON FOR NOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ORIENTED
FROM NNW-TO-SSE HAS MIGRATED TO THE EAST ACRS WI INTO EAST CENTRAL
IL AND MAY BE A CONVECTIVE FOCUS OR STORM HIGHWAY LATER THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S. HIGH BASED/ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SKIRTING EAST ACRS FAR
NORTHERN MO. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING VORT COMPLEX ALOFT MOVING
EAST- SOUTHEAST ACRS ND INTO CENTRAL MN ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX READINGS OUT
THERE...OF COURSE WILL LET THE PREVIOUSLY UPGRADED HEAT WARNING
AND LINGERING ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 8 PM CDT. STILL FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IF ANYTHING INITIATES LOCALLY WILL BE IN THE LINGERING
CU FIELD OF NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWESTERN
IL...WITH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM DBQ IA TO PRINCETON IL MORE
FAVORABLE. IF IT GOES...COULD BE EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT TAKING OFF NOW ACRS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO
NORTHWEST WI COULD HAVE A CHANCE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENTLY
IDENTIFIED MEAN STEERING FLOW ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SHOULD
TAKE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW TO DRY DPTS
OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

TUESDAY...SECONDARY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES TO LEE OF PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE MAY KICK OFF MORE SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA. STILL A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BUT NOT QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE DPTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

QUICK LOOK AT THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT MAIN CHC OF ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL COME THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE-RIDING VORT IS
PROGGED TO COME ACRS THE REGION AT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTION.
EARLY INDICATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TIME AND PROPAGATION PATH
CORRECT. AFTER THAT...LONGER RANGE PROGS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATION ACRS THE LOWER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY MAY SHUNT THE MAIN
STORMS TRACK JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA LIKE A MORE NORMAL
DEEP SUMMER PATTERN...ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN AND INTO WI/GRT LKS. BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OR A PORTION OF AN MCS BLEEDING
DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONE OF THE WEEKEND NIGHTS OR EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THIS PATTERN ALSO TO BRING HIGH HEAT POTENTIAL WITH
TEMPS UP IN THE 90S WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-CLINTON-
     JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-WHITESIDE.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 3:28 AM CST, 13 hours 14 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
428 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-140930-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
428 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS...AND ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A RISK OF
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE RISK IS
GREATER EAST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO THE QUAD CITIES TO
BURLINGTON IOWA AND RELATIVELY LOWER TO THE WEST.

EXTREME HEAT...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW
POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST HEAT
EPISODE OF THE SEASON...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO
ACCLIMATE...THUS IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR
INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE ACTIVE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A SEVERE THREAT.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE AROUND 100.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WOLF/08

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 13, 3:57 PM CST, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
457 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             CALAMUS                 41.83N 90.76W
07/13/2015  E1.75 INCH       CLINTON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0453 PM     HAIL             CALAMUS                 41.83N 90.76W
07/13/2015  E2.75 INCH       CLINTON            IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

ERVIN

Local storm report, Jul 13, 4:03 PM CST, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
503 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             3 SW GRAND MOUND        41.79N 90.69W
07/13/2015  E1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

Local storm report, Jul 13, 4:16 PM CST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             E OXFORD JUNCTION       41.98N 90.95W
07/13/2015  M1.00 INCH       JONES              IA   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY THE EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

DC

Local storm report, Jul 13, 4:31 PM CST, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             2 NW PORT BYRON         41.64N 90.35W
07/13/2015  M0.50 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ERVIN

Local storm report, Jul 13, 4:35 PM CST, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
535 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             3 SW GRAND MOUND        41.79N 90.69W
07/13/2015  M2.00 INCH       CLINTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

Local storm report, Jul 13, 4:36 PM CST, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
07/13/2015  E50 MPH          SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 TO 50 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. NO RAIN.

&&

ERVIN

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 192 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:41 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Scotland

When: July 13, 4:42 PM CST
Where: Scotland County, 0.87 mi SW of Rutledge
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 40.310, -92.090

Hail up to the size of peas also reported.

Thunderstorm Wind, Scotland

When: July 13, 4:43 PM CST
Where: Scotland County, Rutledge
Measured: 60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 40.320, -92.080

A few 12 to 16 inch diameter trees were blown down.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Missouri in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in Missouri, July 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596469, 596468.