The start of a record flood on the Mississippi River began in mid-December. A very wet pattern developed during the second half of the month.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The start of a record flood on the Mississippi River began in mid-December. A very wet pattern developed during the second half of the month. A large upper-level ridge became established over the eastern half of the country, while a large trough formed over the west. This set up a warm southwest flow that brought in copious amounts of moisture. The primary rainfall event that triggered the historic flooding was a swath of 6 to 12 inches across central Missouri from December 26 to 28. The axis of heaviest rainfall extended roughly along Interstate 44 in Missouri, then northeast into central Illinois.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 18, 2:09 AM CST, 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Paducah KY 209 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 209 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 Upper level trough currently poised over our area, will continue to move east today. Low level cloudiness associated with this feature will also gradually move out allowing for sunny skies for the entire area by afternoon at the latest. There was a report or two of flurries up in the Evansville Tri State region, which is not too surprising. Some additional reports of flurries may be possible through the early morning hours but we do not expect any snowfall accumulations. The pool of colder air that is pouring down into our area at this time, will quickly move east of the region. However, even despite afternoon sunshine, temperatures will likely struggle to reach the 40 degree mark today especially up north. Surface high pressure in Texas at this time will shift east today and into tonight, which will cause winds to shift from westerly to southwesterly throughout the day. A weak frontal boundary will attempt to dive southeast into the area tonight as well, but all it will try to bring us, is some clouds. We will see a several degree rise in temperatures on Saturday as upper level heights rise as an upper level ridge begins building into the region. We should see highs well into the 40s to maybe close to 50 degrees out in SEMO, under a good amount of sunshine and light winds, as high pressure at the sfc stretches from the Gulf coast states up into the upper Midwest. Even more warmth is expected on Sunday, as southerly low flow strengthens as the surface high shifts east on Saturday night. Highs in the low/mid 50s appear likely as winds shift from southwesterly to southerly and increase. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will be approaching the area from the west on Sunday. We will see a gradual increase in cloudiness throughout the day on Sunday/Sunday evening, with chances for rain entering the picture by late Sunday evening and overnight. Previous shift bumped up POPS to likely for Sunday night and will continue with that thinking. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 Latest long term is based on a blend of the 00z GEM/GFS and ECMWF. Overall the ECMWF and especially the ECENS have been most consistent with the overall pattern. However, some elements of the GEM and GFS are increasingly important. To start, the GFS and GEM have been more aggressive over the past few model runs, tapering off rain chances Monday afternoon and night. The ECMWF seems to have finally caught on. Therefore we are more aggressive showing a lull during this time frame. We've also shown greater temporal resolution. Surface front will push through late Monday and Monday evening, with best moisture gradually shifting east. Will linger small PoPs across the SE 1/4 of the area, and show a brief end across the NNW late Monday afternoon and night. Front will lift back north Tuesday, with increasing PoPs from south to north through the day upon increasing low trop warm advection and with mid level support. Good chance PoPs will continue area wide Tuesday night through Wednesday. Slightly higher PoPs east vs. west. We had to add back the thunder element that was previously in the forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF show substantial elevated instability and favorable mid level lapse rates will be present for thunder, essentially area wide, but especially east and south sections. Will taper off PoPs for showers more aggressively Thursday, and go dry Thursday night. Not sure there will be anything left Thursday. But given some timing uncertainty will leave the slight chance in, even in the wake of fropa. In terms of temps, prior ECMWF MOS seemed a bit overdone with the degree of warmth. The 00z ECMWF raw data has cooled and come more in line with other guidance. We basically used a trend forecast that fell in line with the 00z ECMWF output, and persistence from previous model blend data. && .AVIATION... Issued at 209 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 Cyclone induced MVFR deck will overtake all terminals early this evening and persist overnight. Gradual improvement will be noted during the daytime tmrw...with decks probably scattering to VFR by/before the pm hours. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 411 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-181100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 411 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mississippi River began its rise toward record-setting levels late in the month. The record crest did not occur until early January. In December, there was widespread flooding of low-lying areas not protected by levee systems.
Major flooding commenced on the Mississippi River in December. The record crest did not occur until early January. Widespread flooding of low-lying areas occurred.
Major flooding began on the Mississippi River by the end of the month, but the crest did not occur until early January. There was widespread flooding of low-lying areas.
Major flooding began on the Mississippi River by the end of the month. However, the crest did not occur until January. There was widespread flooding of low-lying areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609067, 611076, 611077, 611086.