A strong to severe quasi-linear convective system dropped southeast out of Wisconsin and intensified as it moved across Lake Michigan. This led to sporadic wind damage, mainly in southwest lower Michigan and northern Indiana, as well as localized flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A strong to severe quasi-linear convective system dropped southeast out of Wisconsin and intensified as it moved across Lake Michigan. This led to sporadic wind damage, mainly in southwest lower Michigan and northern Indiana, as well as localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 6:39 AM EST, 53 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
INTERESTING CONDITIONAL SEVERE EPISODE IN THE MAKE WITH NOTABLE
VARIABLES WHICH INCLUDE ONGOING SEVERE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACRS
SRN/CNTL WI AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS/BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE
RENEWAL TIMING UPSTREAM BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LOW POTNL FOR
DUAL/CONSECUTIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH THE LATTER NOT TO TRACK
THROUGH REGION UNTIL EARLY TUE AM...SEVERAL HOURS AFTER FIRST.
WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE FIRST TWO EPISODES WITH MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTION FAVORED ALONG SHARP INSTABILITY/ISODROSOTHERMAL
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD FOCUS WI BOWING SEGMENT APEX OF WI SQUALL
LINE ADVANCEMENT MORE RIGHT/SRLY WITH TIME...ADVANCING INTO WRN
CWA AFTER 12 UTC. STRENGTHENING WNWLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW EWD SPREAD THROUGH SCNTL CWA THROUGH AM HOURS AS STORMS
BECOME ELEVATED INTO ERN FRINGES OF WARM ADVECTION LEAF. PRIMARY
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW CORE TO LIKELY EXTEND NW/SE FM NRN IL TO WCNTL
IN. ESTABLISHED RICH POOL OF LWR/MID 70S SFC DPS ACRS MID MS VLY
WITH ERN BOUNDARY THROUGH NERN IL TO SRN IN. AS UPSTREAM SWRLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATER TODAY STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO
SWRN/SRN CWA...ENHANCED FURTHER BY EFFECTIVE CNTL IL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES...WILL FOCUS STRONG SFC BASED
INSTABILITY RESERVOIR /5000+ J/KG IN SWEPT ARC S-SW- W-NW OF CWA
BY MID/LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING AND VEERING MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO 50-60KTS. FOCUS FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM ACRS
WI IN MID/LATE AFTN HOURS APPEARS TIED TO EJECTION OF DUMBELLED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ACRS NRN MN TIED TO PRESENTLY REXED WAVE NEAR
ND/SASK/MAN BORDERS. AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENTERS RAPID CONFLUENCY
BTWN HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND STOIC NRN TX RIDGE. SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT INDUCEMENT TO CONVECT WITH SUBSEQUENT/RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINEAR SEGMENT/S/ BY EVENING
AND ENTRY INTO NWRN/WRN CWA BYND 00 UTC. DEEP LYR SHEAR ON ORDER
OF 45 KTS FAR SWRN CWA TO 30 KTS NE ALONG WITH PRESENTATION OF
INSTABILITY FAVORS SWRN/SRN CWA FOR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS LARGEST RISK GIVEN MID LEVEL SPEEDS ENTRAINED INTO REAR
INFLOWS. HIGHLY CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIRD LATE PD 2 EPSIODE TOO
UNCERTAIN AND DWINDLE SCT TSRA/HIR SHRA POPS TO CHC BYND 06 UTC.
LACK OF STRONG DESTABILZATION DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION TRAVERSING
SRN LK MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP STORMS ACRS NERN CWA BLO SVR LIMITS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
LONG TERM FORECAST FAIRLY QUIET FROM A RELATIVE PERSPECTIVE. MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRIMARY THETA-E
RIDGE LONG GONE BY THAT POINT BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO TOUCH
OFF SCT/NUM SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. ALSO SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THOSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0.25-0.5 INCHES) WILL BE IN THE SOUTH
AND MAY PROLONG FLOODING DUE TO SHORT TERM CONVECTION.
WED/THURS STILL LOOKING DRY AS GREAT LAKES RECEIVE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
AVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL YIELD A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT THERMAL PROFILES NOT PARTICULARLY
COLD AND WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOLAR
INSOLATION. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F. RETURN TO
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A MUCH WARMER AND
MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS FOLDS BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COURTESY OF
STALWART SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER PARADE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
(NOT SURPRISINGLY) MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
IMMENSELY WITH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SORTED OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INVOF KSBN AND LINEAR COMPLEX OVR SRN LK MI
REQUIRES TSRA MENTION FROM START AT KSBN THROUGH 15 UTC. TIMING OF
LINE TO KFWA ROUGHLY AROUND 15 UTC. PERTURBED MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FUELING/ALTERNATE CIGS
IF NOT BRIEF IFR UNTIL PASSAGE OF TSRA. THEREAFTER...GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND POTNL FOR
RENEWED CONVECTION. FOR NOW COVER WITH VCTS AT 02/04 UTC FOR
KSBN/KFWA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003-012-013-015-
020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANAHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 540 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-140945- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 540 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 69. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF ROUTE 31. THE GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM. THE PRIMARY RISK IS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BENTON HARBOR TO FORT WAYNE TO FINDLAY LINE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-140945- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 540 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS OR GREATER ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGH WAVES ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 542 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-131230- ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-ST. JOSEPH MI- BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING- PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE... LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN... DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY... MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS... WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE... LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE... SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER... LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA... PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS... OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE 542 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE... PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 8 AM. USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS NEAR WATER WILL BE MOST PRONE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT AFTER 8 AM.
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:32 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Shingles off of the roof of a building and a large tree uprooted.
One and a half foot diameter tree downed onto a house. Health of tree unknown. Time estimated by radar.
A tree was downed near Mottville, blocking State Route 12.
Tree downed.
Small branches down in Buchanan, with reports of trees down two miles south of Buchanan.
At the fairgrounds. Some tree branches and flags downed.
Tree down on Youngs Prairie Road. Time estimated from radar.
Tree downed.
Trees and power lines down. Time estimated by radar.
Large tree down on M-86 and Nottawa Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 595079, 595080, 595081, 595082, 595083, 595084, 595088, 595089, 595090, 595091.