Heavy Rain in Kentucky, May 16, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
208 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF WEST KY WITH AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT
1-2" IN A FEW SPOTS...MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 1". AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL SUFFICE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY AND THE DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED OVERALL. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING...DEFINITELY EFFICIENT NONE THE LESS GIVEN WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND SMALL CAPE. ALL THE MODELS POINT TO A DIMINISHING TREND
FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE THAT WE HAVE MONITORED
ON WVAPOR MOVING SLOWLY NE. THE RAP AND NAM WERE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED. WE CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN THE REST OF TODAY AS
WELL. THEY SHOULD FALL LITTLE TONIGHT WITH THE STAGNANT/HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THE RULE.

SPC EXPANDED THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA EAST DAY 2 INTO 1/2 OF THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND TEND TO DISAGREE. SURE
THERE COULD BE A FEW WARNINGS. BUT ENOUGH QUESTION MARKS EXIST.
THE NAM SUGGESTS A MIN CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ALREADY INTO THE
AREA AND BETTER DESTABILIZATION TO OUR WEST AND EAST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW BETTER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN IF WE
DESTABILIZE... BETTER WIND FIELDS ARE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION. WILL KEEP
POPS HIGH CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE.
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE FRONT VERY
SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN
CONTROL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A REFLECTION OF A SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH POSITIVE
LI'S AND LITTLE TO NO CAPE. ALTHOUGH SHOWALTERS IN VERY POSITIVE...K
INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF
THUNDER BUT NOTHING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE...SO NO INCLUSION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN BASE
HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY STAYED MVFR THROUGH VARIABILITY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST...WITH GUSTS 15-20
KTS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-171000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-JACKSON-
WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-
MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-
BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-
CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
211 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ON SUNDAY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.