An isolated instance of flash flooding occurred in Rockcastle county on July 20, 2015.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An isolated instance of flash flooding occurred in Rockcastle county on July 20, 2015.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 20, 12:29 AM EST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 129 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THIS SITUATION QUITE WELL AT THE MOMENT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SW OH THIS EVENING AND HEADED SE...AND IT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING...BUT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HAVE ADDED A REGION OF ELEVATED CHANCE POPS TO OUR FAR N AND FAR NE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP HAS DIED OUT...AND A POP OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL BE USED AT THIS POINT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MOST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY CONVECTION OR ITS OUTFLOW EARLY THIS EVENING. EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POP IN THOSE AREAS... SHORT TERM MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH PRECIP DURING THE NIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND HAVE REDUCED THE POP THERE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS INDIANA HAS TRIGGERED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS SW OH AND FAR NORTHERN KY. 17Z GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER...PW...AROUND 2 INCHES AND LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MU CAPES AT 3000-4000 J/KG IN EASTERN KY. WHILE THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER FAR NORTHERN KY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...THE ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS EASTERN KY HAVE A MOVEMENT CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTION IS ALSO INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL KY IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE TAIL OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SW OH. GIVEN THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A MORE E-W ORIENTATION THIS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO TRAINING CELLS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KY. CONVECTION SHOULD REACH A PEAK BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING..AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION LINGER WELL AFTER SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL LEAVE A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH PWS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON MONDAY AND WITH CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED BY MONDAY EVENING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MAINLY IN TWO DISTINCT PERIODS...EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND GO WITH A SINGLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 16Z...NOON EDT...ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BECOME STALLED OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A FAST BREAK SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE W/WNW AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FLOWING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPEED SHEER WILL BE DECENT...BUT CAPE VALUES AND LI/S WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WILL THE AVAILABLE PWATS. SO WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS THIS DAY. AND WITH STRONGER WINDS DRIVING STORM MOTION TO AROUND 23 KNOTS /ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS/...ANY RAIN WHICH DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY NOT LINGER OVER ONE LOCATION FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT OF TIME. THAT BEING SAID...ANY RAIN IN GENERAL...NO MATTER THE AMOUNT OR DURATION...COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE OVERALL SATURATED NATURE OF THE SOIL...ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY/S RAINS. A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FINALLY BRING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY...AND HEAT INDEXES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE RANGE...BUT THIS IS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT OF TODAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FURTHER INTO THE LOW 80S...AS A NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF PRECIP IN OUR CWA...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR ONCE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW /POSITIONED OVER JAMES BAY AT 0Z WEDNESDAY/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWING AS IT HEADS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE SW CONUS. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL SMALL WAVES TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS ALONG THIS NW FLOW...BUT AS OF NOW...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL WIN OUT...AND ANY PRECIPITATION INDUCED FROM THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...ONLY SKIRTING OUR FAR SW CWA. RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE TO RISING TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. SJS WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 7 AND 9Z...WITH CORRESPONDING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSE THE RAIN IS AND HOW MUCH FOG FORMS DURING AND AFTER THE RAIN. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG THROUGH 12 TO 13Z THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP AFTER 18Z TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1043 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-201100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1043 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY COULD BRING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SBH/HAL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:58 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A section of Mullins Station Road was washed out in Withers.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 586365.