A warm, humid air mass collided with an approaching cold front August 3 and 4 across central Kentucky. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed and moved through parts of the region, producing locally damaging winds and excessive rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A warm, humid air mass collided with an approaching cold front August 3 and 4 across central Kentucky. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed and moved through parts of the region, producing locally damaging winds and excessive rainfall. A cluster of the storms regenerated over Bourbon County with reports of 4 to locally 6 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 3, 5:40 PM EST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 640 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 IN THE NEAR TERM, SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPEATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTH. REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY UP INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL INDIANA. AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF COVINGTON AND LOUISVILLE STILL SHOW A BIT OF CAPPING WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MINIMIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, COMBINATION OF COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH SOME MODIFICATION IN THE CAP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS, MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SOME STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND ASSOCIATED EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AND FADE AWAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TUESDAY, AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO A LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING. THEREFORE, PLAN ON LEAVING IN THE ISOLATED STORM CHANCE WITH THIS UPDATE. STUCK CLOSER TO THE WEIGHTED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WESTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING WILL BE ESTABLISHED THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY. A DRIER PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING, THROUGH OUR AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, MODELS SLIGHTLY DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO CREATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOTICED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL (20-30 KNOTS) FOR ORGANIZATION. MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL COUPLE WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND OVERALL SYSTEM. IN FACT, WPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF KENTUCKY IN A SLIGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT... THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER. WILL LEAVE LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EAST. SOME DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/ECMWF AS WE WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENT WAKE OF THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80'S AND LOWS IN THE 60'S. SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT... DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 80'S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60'S. MONDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 80'S TO AROUND 90. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)... ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 TWO EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING ARE THE SURFACE FRONT OVER INDIANA...AND THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORMER BOUNDARY HAS SPARKED STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...BUT CONVECTION IS REALLY STRUGGLING FARTHER WEST AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME IMPACTING LEX...LET ALONE SDF. A COUPLE CELLS ALONG THE OUTFLOW OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER THAT CONVECTION MAKES IT INTO BWG. WILL BE A LAST-MINUTE DECISION WHETHER TO INCLUDE VCTS/CB...BUT AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY EVENING PRECIP WILL BE AT BWG. ONCE DAYLIGHT FADES THERE WILL BE A DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS KENTUCKY AND WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE. WILL CARRY MVFR VIS AT BWG WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING THERE...BUT LEX AND SDF SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED AS THE DEWPOINTS DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST...SINCE THE LACK OF ONGOING CONVECTION ON THE FRONT MAY MEAN THAT IT WILL HANG UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. VFR CONDITIONS AND WEST WINDS JUST BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && SHORT TERM........MJ LONG TERM.........BJS AVIATION..........RAS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 354 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-042000- ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON- FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT- OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD- FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE- GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN- LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL- CUMBERLAND-CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM... SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN... MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE... HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH... BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF... FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS... LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY... BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE... CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA... TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS... CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE... WILMORE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE... LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE... HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY... STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE... SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA... RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 354 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE HIGHEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. MJ/BJS/CEA
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
KYZ037-040000-
HARRISON-
727 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HARRISON COUNTY...
AT 727 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WILLIAMSTOWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CYNTHIANA...BRECKINRIDGE...BERRY...COLVILLE...RUTLAND...VENUS...
SUNRISE...ODDVILLE...RENAKER...ROBINSON...CLAYSVILLE...US ROUTE 62 AT
STATE ROUTE 19...BOYD...ANTIOCH...KELAT...POINDEXTER...GARNETT AND
COLEMANSVILLE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3838 8418 3835 8423 3847 8455 3848 8455
3850 8453 3851 8449 3854 8448 3853 8446
3854 8443 3857 8441 3858 8421 3858 8420
3857 8420 3856 8422 3855 8421 3855 8416
3850 8418 3850 8416 3849 8417 3848 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 293DEG 31KT 3857 8449
RASSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
756 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
KYZ037-043-040030-
HARRISON-NICHOLAS-
756 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NICHOLAS AND NORTHERN
HARRISON COUNTIES...
AT 755 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR CYNTHIANA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLISLE...BERRY...MORNING GLORY...MYERS...VENUS...ODDVILLE...
MOOREFIELD...US ROUTE 62 AT STATE ROUTE 19...ANTIOCH...POINDEXTER...
GARNETT...COLEMANSVILLE...ELLISVILLE...HOOKTOWN...SUNRISE...
HEADQUARTERS...PLEASANT VALLEY...ROBINSON...SPROUT AND CLAYSVILLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
LAT...LON 3824 8393 3851 8451 3851 8449 3854 8448
3854 8443 3857 8441 3858 8420 3855 8421
3855 8416 3852 8418 3849 8417 3843 8400
3842 8400 3844 8397 3836 8392 3836 8389
3835 8390 3836 8387 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 293DEG 30KT 3848 8424
RASThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:08 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A Harrison County law enforcement official reported that trees were down in the area.
A Bourbon County law enforcement official reported high water flowing over Cane Ridge Road near Little Rock Christian Church.
A broadcast meteorologist relayed a report of a large tree snapped off.
An off-duty NWS employee relayed a report of a tree snapped off along Johnsontown Road near Highway 31W.
An off-duty NWS employee reported that a large tree was snapped on Leemont Drive.
A broadcast media meteorologist relayed a report of trees down in the Brooks area.
A trained spotter reported trees down along Beech Grove Road.
The Bullitt County emergency manager reported trees and power lines down throughout the area.
The Bullitt County emergency manager reported a large tree down on power lines along Bells Mill Road.
An off-duty NWS employee reported 1 large tree down along with several large limbs down. Some of the trees were blocking the roadway.
An off-duty NWS employee reported water flowing over US 31W, but the road remained passable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 587095, 587078, 587045, 587046, 587047, 587048, 587049, 587050, 587051, 587052, 587094.