Two rounds of thunderstorms occurred across parts of western Kentucky. The heaviest rainfall from both rounds extended from northern parts of the Kentucky Lake region to northern parts of the Pennyrile region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Two rounds of thunderstorms occurred across parts of western Kentucky. The heaviest rainfall from both rounds extended from northern parts of the Kentucky Lake region to northern parts of the Pennyrile region. The first round during the early morning hours produced locally two to three inches of rain. Another round during the midday and early afternoon hours caused isolated flash flooding and a microburst. The first round of storms occurred in a warm, moist south wind flow ahead of a cold front that extended from the upper Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks. The second round of storms occurred along the cold front as it approached the Lower Ohio Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 10:53 PM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 .UPDATE... Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 Convection early this evening is doing a good job of lifting north and mostly avoiding our region. We have had a couple of shower/storms move through Ripley and Carter counties, but otherwise it has been dry. Most convection resolving guidance continues to indicate that the current activity will dissipate as it tries to push eastward across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri this evening. Made minor adjustments for hourly detail in the PoP/Wx grids this evening. More convection is possible later tonight in the overnight hours. The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 Convection lit up from eastern MO into IL, with a SVR watch just to our NW. It has fired faster than some of the hi-res models depicted. Yesterday's data was better actually. Will continue to monitor our far NW counties for stronger convection, but with existing activity taking on a NE trajectory in a region of better effective bulk shear ahead of mid level circulation over NW MO, will only carry chance PoPs for now in this area. Into the evening, will bring additional PoPs in from the WSW, though along the southern end coverage should be more limited, if there's anything at all. We are watching convection over AR this afternoon, and instability extends into the MO bootheel. We will see. Better coverage should be closer to increased flow across southern IL into southwest IN on northward. In summary, PoPs tonight will be tricky with the front still to our west, and given the models difficulty in pin pointing areas of best moisture, instability and placement of subtle PVA regions aloft. Therefore confidence in the PoP forecast tonight is not high. PoPs will remain high Wednesday, though activity will come in waves/clusters, vs. solid shield precip. For reasons listed yesterday afternoon, still not sold on severe weather. Only the GFS flares up some afternoon instability that could result in a few stronger cells, mainly SW IN, west KY. But the NAM and ECMWF remain steadfast forecasting weak mid level lapse rates, and only modest near surface MLYR instability, marginal low level / mid level flow. Think locally heavy rain is more of a concern than anything else, though a couple of strong cells cannot be ruled out. Lingering higher PoPs in the evening Wednesday, then chances taper off from west to east after midnight Wednesday night. Should be dry Thursday through Thursday night, outside of a slight chance of morning showers in the KHOP area. Temps throughout were based on a MOS/model blend solution. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 Given the short residence time on the extended forecast desk yesterday, did not do a comparison with previous model run trends for the upcoming weekend into early next week. However, at least the last four model runs of the GFS Ensemble suggest an anomalous cool spell early next week. Based on a period from 1985 to 2012, expected temperatures Monday and Tuesday are expected to be between 3 to 4 standard deviations cooler than normal and are at a minimum for model guidance for the same reference period. Likewise, sea level pressures are at an anomalous high during the same period mentioned above suggesting a strong impact with ridging early next week. In short, we may see a brief cool spell with highs near 80 degrees, compared to normal highs in the upper 80s. The NAEFS and GEFS guidance are increasingly hinting at a brief cool spell next Monday and Tuesday. Since yesterday, the medium range model suite has been hinting at a slightly slower evolution/sharpening of a lee side (of the Rockies) low. There remains a slightly dampened low amplitude trough in the zonal flow over the Eastern Plains/Western Mississippi Valley Region Friday night, ahead of the digging Northwest U.S. trough. The sharpening of this trough, combined with the antecedent ridge/low/ridge over the Mexican Baja and Gulf of Mexico will focus the majority of the moisture/lift over Missouri and the Lower Mississippi Valley early Saturday. This will bring the best chances for rain over Southeast Missouri, with lesser rain chances extending into the Purchase Area of West Kentucky and Southwest Illinois (along and West of I-57/I-24) during the day Saturday. As the strong upper closed low moves into the Dakotas late Saturday, the low amplitude trough will slowly push eastward and slightly phase with the northern U.S. closed low. This will spread a chance of rain east across the remainder of the WFO PAH forecast area Saturday night through the day on Sunday. Given the anomalous positive precipitable water values expected in advance of a cold front Saturday into Sunday, there may be a brief period of organized severe convection on a mesoscale level, since it will be marginal on the sub synoptic/synoptic level across the WFO PAH forecast area. Beyond Sunday, a large scale ridging pattern building over the Desert Southwest into Texas will expand even more to the west and northwest. A return to near normal temperatures will return by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 Not much change in the overall thinking from 00Z. Still looking for increasing chances of showers overnight and through the day, culminating with a chance of TS near the cold front in the afternoon. With decent south winds expected overnight, fog does not seem likely, so generally expect VFR conditions outside of convection until the the afternoon with the front close by. A decent northwest wind around 10kts is expected behind the front which should clear all sites by 00Z. MVFR showers and ceilings expected behind the front for most of the evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...CN LONG TERM....KES AVIATION...DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 239 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 239 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY STORM RELATED CONCERNS ARE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...A BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WIND IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. SHOULD WE ACHIEVE MORE DAYTIME HEATING THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED WIND GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A SMALL AREA OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
806 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
MOZ086-087-190145-
BOLLINGER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-
806 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU AND
NORTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...
AT 805 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MARQUAND...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FREDERICKTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARBLE HILL...GLEN ALLEN...BURFORDVILLE...DAISY...PATTON...
MILLERSVILLE...SEDGEWICKVILLE AND GLENALLEN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3732 9014 3744 9015 3755 9014 3757 8974
3730 8975 3731 8998 3731 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 263DEG 24KT 3740 9018
DRSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
846 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
ILZ088-MOZ087-190230-
UNION IL-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-
846 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN UNION AND NORTHERN CAPE
GIRARDEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...
AT 845 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MILLERSVILLE...OR NEAR JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...BURFORDVILLE...DAISY...WARE...MILLERSVILLE...OAK RIDGE AND
POCAHONTAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3759 8938 3737 8932 3736 8982 3756 8983
3758 8959 3758 8955 3757 8955 3757 8954
3758 8951 3757 8950 3756 8947 3759 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 267DEG 26KT 3745 8974
DRSThe Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:10 UTC.
2 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The 24-hour total rainfall was 2.70 inches, which fell almost entirely in a six-hour window during the late night and early morning hours.
Several roads across the county were covered with flowing water.
Near the intersection of Highways 903 and 515, a microburst carved a path of downed trees about 250 yards long. Single trees were damaged up to three-quarters of a mile away from the damage path.
Water was over Kentucky Highway 91 in several places between the 17 and 21 mile markers. At one location, water was reported to be a foot deep with strong current. Brush and tree limbs swept along by the floodwaters clogged a culvert near the community of Crider.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 593416, 593415, 593729, 593426.