Hail in Kansas, May 26, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A EMPORIA TO
OTTAWA LINE. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE COTTONWOOD...NEOSHO AND
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COTTONWOOD...NEOSHO AND MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVERS.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
APPEAR TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. IN ADDITION...THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH COULD EXACERBATE
OR PRODUCE NEW FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP