On the afternoon of the 18th a line of thunderstorms rolled through far northern KS. These storms produced rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour as they continued to move eastward.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
On the afternoon of the 18th a line of thunderstorms rolled through far northern KS. These storms produced rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour as they continued to move eastward. Some roads were damaged due to the flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 11:18 AM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015 .UPDATE... Issued at 609 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 The 06Z models and latest HRRR/RAP continue to show the MCS over NEB holding together long enough to move into at least northern portions of the forecast area. From the surface OBs behind the line of storms, it looks like a fairly decent cold pool has formed with pressure rises of about 4 MB. Therefore will be updating the forecast to increase POPs across the northern counties. There is still some question as to whether it will make it as far south as I-70. Nevertheless there may be a remnant boundary that could aid afternoon development. Will need to keep an eye on this. && ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 300 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 The weather pattern has changed very little over the last 24 hrs as 08Z water vapor shows the remnants of bill over southern OK with the mean westerlies over the northern tier of the country. One difference however is the morning MCS moving through the NEB panhandle is a little later in the morning, having developed over MT and WY. Surface obs put the center of Bill over the red river valley while a broad area of high pressure moves into the upper Midwest. The forecast for today and tonight is pretty similar to yesterday. The RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM show the MCS approaching north central KS by the late morning hours. Not sure if it will hold together long enough to reach the forecast area, but the hi resolution models show a weak boundary moving into northern KS by the afternoon which could help some isolated to scattered storms form in the heat of the day. Deep layer shear once again is relatively weak with some reasonable instability. Therefore I would anticipate convection to behave like ordinary cells, popping up and falling apart without much organization to their updrafts. Held onto small POPs through the afternoon across the northern counties thinking the airmass will remain somewhat unstable until the boundary layer begins cooling. If the MCS hold together and mows into northern KS, the cold pool may stabilize the airmass for the afternoon. The day shift can monitor trends. Otherwise, Bill should remain to the south and east of the forecast area. Have some chance POPs across Anderson county as some of the precip could sneak into the county and this matches up with neighboring offices. With the boundary layer stabilizing this evening and Bill progged to drift east into AR and southern MO, think precip chances will diminish through the evening. Think that highs should be pretty similar to yesterday's. There may be some weak cold air advection from northeast surface winds. However decent insolation over north central and northeast KS should offset this. Lows tonight should once again fall into the mid and upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 Upper flow pattern remains persistent in guidance with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill gradually lifting north and east over MO Friday. Track of the upper low a bit further east in reference to far east central areas of the CWA suggested precipitation will remain east of the CWA. Therefore pops were removed for this period. Mid level westerlies become the predominant pattern for the remainder of the period with a series of weak waves passing near the area. The first on Saturday was progged to dip southward across the central plains as an associated frontal boundary sags southward into the CWA. Some weak low level forcing will persist near the boundary during the late afternoon where surface CAPE increases over 2000 J/KG. However low level forcing appears inhibited by the stout capping inversion in place at 750 MB, in addition to the upper level support shifting further east by most guidance. Therefore have removed the mention of thunderstorms during the day Saturday. By Saturday evening, the sfc boundary stalls near the Nebraska border where a series of weak shortwave troughs from the northwest bring scattered thunderstorm chances to areas mainly north of Interstate 70. This activity will persist through Sunday evening before the boundary washes out. Dry conditions return through Wednesday as the upper storm systems shift further north with ridging developing over the southern CONUS. Heat and humidity is expected to persist through the extended period. In the near term, Saturday afternoon will be the warmest afternoon as h85 temps to the middle 20s. Thermal ridge axis similarly builds over north central KS where slightly deeper mixing from 800 MB would advect highs to the middle and upper 90s. Low to middle 90s will be seen elsewhere. The combination of dewpoints in the 70s should raise heat index readings between 101 to as high as 108 degrees across northeast KS. High temps are slightly cooler through Wednesday in the lower 90s, but would not be surprised to see heat indices reach 100 degrees again across north central KS. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 Challenging forecast for sfc winds as outflow from decaying convective system will cause winds to briefing become NW for an hour or two this afternoon. Eventually sfc winds should become NE as remnants of Bill move across southern MO. Scattered convection will remain in vcnty of the TAF sites through early this evening. Expect dry weather after 00z however given continued very moist airmass expect another period of MVFR VIS conds after 06z tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...Wolters SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...CO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 445 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190945- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 445 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. AREAS IMPACTED ARE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAT INDICIES ON SATURDAY RANGE BETWEEN 100 DEGREES AND 108 DEGREES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:00 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding of the township and county roads from 4 to 8 miles east and northeast of Oketo. Some damage to roads as well.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, June 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 577943.