Tornadoes and Hail in Iowa, November 11, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

STRONG NOVEMBER STORM SYSTEM IS INTESYFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME THAT COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST.  A
DEEPENING SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE KS AND S NE THIS AFTERNOON.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN IA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE AND THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT ON THE BACK END OF THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT.  AS
ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AFTER
THE STORMS END TONIGHT.

LOOKING AT THE STORM SYSTEM FROM A TOP DOWN APPROACH.  STRONG H3 JET
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS OUR
AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LARGESCALE RISING MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IA
AND WESTERN ILL.  THE H5 WAVE STILL IS FORECAST TO SWING NEGATIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS WITH THE H3 FLOW WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND RISING MOTION. AT H85...THE LLJ
TERMINUS ROTATES THROUGH THE CWA FROM 18Z TO 00Z ONLY INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  AGAIN THESE DYNAMICS ARE
PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA.  AS WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A FORGONE CONCLUSION AS CAPE AND
TIMING OF DAY WILL COME INTO PLAY.

THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAVE LEAD TO MOISTURE RETURN THAT WAS WELL ABOVE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THIS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN THE SKY HAVE LEAD TO
HEATING AND ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITIES OF SEVERE OF
WEATHER.  ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.  THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST AND COULD LEAD TO
LITTLE TIME TO RESPOND TO THEM.  THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE
STRONG SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA.  REPORTS OF DAMAGE FROM NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE TOO LOW AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED  ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WIND ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE SHAPE OF CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY NEED THE ADVISORY EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUTE.

FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A DRY
AND QUIET WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INTENSE CYCLONE WILL BE OCCLUDING AS
IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED IN THE HIGH PLAINS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTH AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY COMBINED
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RATHER WINDY IN THE MORNING BUT
THE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

THIS WEEKEND...DRY AND SEASONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE CWA BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS STILL TO BE DETERMINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

MESSY AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH STRONG WINDS GIVING WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THE TAF SITES. AFTER THE STORMS A
WIND SHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 40KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WILL UPDATE THE TEMPO GROUPS TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS AS STORMS
APPROACH THEM. THOSE AIRPORTS WITHOUT A E-W RUNWAY WILL LIKELY
HAVE ISSUES WITH CROSSWINDS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-JACKSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLARK.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...GIBBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
828 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-121000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
828 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WITH A SLIGHT RISK NORTH OF THIS LINE. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERTSORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE. LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY IMPACT THE
RISK OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOVING
AT SPEEDS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY OVER 50 MPH. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS WILL
LEAVE YOU LITTLE TIME TO RESPOND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE
REPORT ANY WINDS OVER 40 MPH. ALSO ANY DAMAGE FROM STRONG...SUSTAINED
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NICHOLS/UTTECH/GIBBS