An early morning thunderstorm complex rapidly developed over the Lower Ohio Valley ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave trough. The complex evolved into a broad zone of convection along and south of a stationary front that extended from central Missouri through central Illinois.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An early morning thunderstorm complex rapidly developed over the Lower Ohio Valley ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave trough. The complex evolved into a broad zone of convection along and south of a stationary front that extended from central Missouri through central Illinois. Three-hour rainfall amounts were from one to three inches, with isolated higher rates. The convection was focused along the nose of a low-level jet in a very moist air mass, with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.25 inch range.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 5:46 AM CST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 646 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THURSDAY. AS OF 2 AM...THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FIRING UP IN EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THESE STORMS...INCLUDING THEIR TIMING AND AREAL PLACEMENT. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING STORMS EXIT OUR REGION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A KMVN/KMDH/KPOF LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET GIVEN VERY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO TENNESSEE. IN ANY CASE...PRECIP COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WILL SERVE TO PULL THE FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL. WPC GUIDANCE AND OFFICE GRIDDED QPF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING AROUND TWO INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A KMVN/KMDH LINE...AS WELL AS NW OF KCGI. EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND IS VERY MOIST...THESE AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS AND HWO...AND HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE SCATTERED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO EXPAND NORTH. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE OVER OUR REGION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY IN ALL AREAS...AND THEN LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE QUITE SMALL...ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR SO. IN THE AREAS OF HIGHEST QPF AND CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 MODEL PREFERENCE - A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF WITH A MINOR INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT WEST AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW MORE PROMINENT NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. HAVE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH...I64 FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY...HOT HUMID WEATHER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE DRIER AIRMASS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY IT. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION WITH COVERAGE GENERALLY AOB 10 PERCENT. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE CONVECTIVE POPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODELS DEPICTION OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THE EARLY MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITED THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS. CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY TRICKY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...MOSTLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...CN AVIATION...MY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 415 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-080915- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 415 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND TWO INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0550 AM FLASH FLOOD PADUCAH 37.07N 88.64W
07/07/2015 MCCRACKEN KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
FRIENDSHIP ROAD AND SENECA LANE COMPLETELY UNDER WATER
AND IMPASSABLE.
&&
CTNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0556 AM FLASH FLOOD PADUCAH 37.07N 88.64W
07/07/2015 MCCRACKEN KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
NEW HOLT ROAD UNDERWATER. FIRE AND RESCUE VEHICLES UNABLE
TO NAVIGATE ACROSS.
&&
CTNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
604 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0604 AM HEAVY RAIN WEST PADUCAH 37.08N 88.74W
07/07/2015 M2.98 INCH MCCRACKEN KY ASOS
&&
CTNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0652 AM FLASH FLOOD PADUCAH 37.07N 88.64W
07/07/2015 MCCRACKEN KY PUBLIC
MADISON STREET IMPASSABLE. WATER UP TO HOMES. REPORT VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT WITH PHOTOS.
&&
CTNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
727 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE PADUCAH 37.09N 88.59W
07/07/2015 M5.44 INCH MCCRACKEN KY OTHER FEDERAL
WATER FRONT RIVER GAUGE 2 ENE PADUCAH
/PAHK2/
&&
NWS PADUCAH KY
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
740 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0736 AM FLOOD 6 NNE MARION 37.41N 88.04W
07/07/2015 CRITTENDEN KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
CREEKS AND STREAMS PAST BANKFULL.
&&
CTNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter measured 2.50 inches of rain in three hours during the morning hours. Low water crossings were flooded. Another one to two inches of rain fell later in the day, causing minor creek flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 588649.