Hail and Damaging Wind in Illinois, April 7, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Starting to sound like a broken record, but once again, focus will
be precip chances thru the period.

Expect precip over the ern portions of the CWA to continue moving
out of the area early this morning. Some isod SHRA, and perhaps TS,
will be possible. However, main focus is expected to be the ongoing
TSRA over wrn MO. Numerous mdl solns suggest this cluster of TSRA
will lift enewd into the area this morning and build sewd late this
morning, perhaps into the afternoon, as the LLJ veers. However, some
question remains how far E and S these storms will propagate before
dissipating as the LLJ weakens. As these storms dissipate, expect a
lull this afternoon into the evening before the next round arrives.
Some question remains as to where/when TSRA will initiate, but best
chances shud be along the sfc boundary across the nrn portions of
the CWA, tho any outflow boundaries may also help initiate storms.
Have kept PoPs for tonight in the change range due to questions in
boundary locations.

Given the amount of elevated CAPE and deep shear available, a severe
threat will exist with hail and winds as a primary threat.

Little change in temps for today and tonight with continued trends
twd warm guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Not many changes from the prev forecast. Still a number of
questions exist with upcoming system. A severe threat still exists
on Wed during the late afternoon and overnight period. The greater
threat still exists on Thurs as the cdfnt pushes thru the region.
Mdl solns have changed slightly from yesterday. Mdls have sped up
timing of fropa slightly, with bulk of precip expected to be E of
the CWA by 06z Fri. Mdls now have upper trof remaining neutral as
it approaches the region. Still, enuf CAPE and deep shear will
exist to pose a severe threat. Please see the latest SPC day 2 and
day 3 outlooks for the latest info as local thinking agrees with
SPC.

Mdl solns differ regarding timing of the next system Sat into Sun.
Have low PoPs early to account for the GFS soln and trended twd
higher PoPs where/when mdls are in better agreement.

Otherwise, have continued warm trend thru Thurs despite the ample
cloud cover expected. Cooler, but seasonal avg, temps are expected
this weekend as a large sfc ridge settles into the area.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Busy fcst prd over the next 24 hrs. Warm front currently lifting
north thru cntrl MO and sthrn IL with a significant TSTM rolling
east along the bndry. This storm has a history of producing 1-2
inch hail and should arrive in the wrn STL metro area around 13Z.
CIGs have been sporadic with VFR and LIFR conditions from west to
east across the STL metro area. Model guidance indicates plenty of
IFR/MVFR conditions thru the fcst prd but lack of verification
compared to current obs makes the CIG fcst low confidence. Think
the general trend will be for CIGs to slowly rise today as the
warm front lifts north only to build back down tonight. Pattern is
conducive for scttrd convection just about anytime...but think the
best chances will be tied to the warm front and should be confined
to area along and north of I70.

Specifics for KSTL:

Sporadic CIGs this mrng are expected to rise as a warm front
lifts north...though the CIG fcst is low confidence due to poor
model performance compared to currently obs. A significant TSTM is
riding east along the bndry and should be near the terminal around
14Z. This storm has a history of producing 1-2 inch hail. The
overall pattern is such that SHRA/TSTMs are possible just about
anywhere at anytime but think the best chances this prd should be
tied to the warm front. With that bndry lifting north this
mrng...chances should decrease after this mrngs activity.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     80  64  81  68 /  60  40  50  70
Quincy          74  60  77  62 /  60  40  60  80
Columbia        79  62  80  64 /  60  40  60  70
Jefferson City  80  63  81  65 /  50  40  60  70
Salem           77  62  79  66 /  50  40  30  70
Farmington      78  62  81  65 /  40  30  30  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
413 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
413 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE..WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THURSDAY...AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL THAT THEY OBSERVE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1002 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     HAIL             4 E ST. CLAIR           38.35N  90.91W
04/07/2015  E2.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE TO CAR HOOD.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N AUGUSTA             38.60N  90.88W
04/07/2015  M3.25 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ON HIGHWAY T NORTH OF AUGUSTA. SMALL POND ON PROPERTY
            FILLED AND OVERFLOWING

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1014 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE EUREKA            38.53N  90.63W
04/07/2015  M1.12 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   COCORAHS

            1.12 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1019 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N AFFTON              38.56N  90.33W
04/07/2015  M1.13 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT WATSON AND LACLEDE STATION ROAD... 1.13 INCHES IN 30
            MINUTES.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1022 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 WSW O'FALLON          38.75N  90.81W
04/07/2015  M1.20 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   COCORAHS

            1.20 INCHES TOTAL... WITH 0.45 INCHES IN THE PAST 14
            MINUTES.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1032 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             LONEDELL                38.31N  90.83W
04/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER RELAYED NEIGHBORS REPORT OF HAIL AS BIG AS AN
            INCH. THE SPOTTER WAS ACTUALLY IN UNION AT THE TIME.

&&

FUCHS