Funnel Clouds in Idaho, May 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
308 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. YOU GUESSED IT...MORE RAIN AND
HIGH PEAK SNOW. THE FIRST LOW IS OVER EASTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING
AND STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO AND EVENTUALLY INTO WYOMING BY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH
DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT THE LEAST RAINY AREAS
WILL BE AROUND ISLAND PARK AND CHALLIS. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED STORMS...WE MAY NOT SEE AS MANY STRONG STORMS AS WE DID
YESTERDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BUT WILL IT BE
ENOUGH TO SUPRESS THINGS. WE COULD GET A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE AS A DRY SLOT IS TRYING TO WORK NORTH
THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. IF SO...EXPECT A LITTLE
BETTER THREAT OF THUNDER. IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
AGAIN TODAY. WHERE WE SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IS DEPENDENT ON
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOP AND ANY ENHANCEMENT DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS. IN THOSE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY SEE AMOUNTS
TRYING TO PUSH OVER 1 INCH JUST LIKE YESTERDAY AND DAYS PRIOR. WE
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE ANOTHER BREAK TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. WE WILL STILL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF EASTERN IDAHO...BUT MUCH DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE
WEAK RIDGE HOLDS TOMORROW...BUT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AGAIN. OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER...BUT WE'RE STILL LOOKING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME PLACES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MORE OF THE
SAME IS ON THE WAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
NEXT SYSTEM DROPS TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY TURNS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. A THIRD LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP IN ACROSS THE WEST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRACK. IT
DOES APPEAR THOUGH IT WILL HELP PULL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IDAHO
AND KEEP THINGS SHOWERY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE BOTTOM
LINE HERE IS THAT IF YOU'RE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR THE
HOLIDAY...KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND BE READY TO ADJUST PLANS
ACCORDINGLY IF NECESSARY. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTN. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. VFR CIGS/VIS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH BORDERLINE VFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS ONE UPPER LOW AFTER ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
READINGS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH. HEDGES

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT HAS LEAD TO RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA
STREAMS AND EVEN A FEW OF THE MAIN RIVERS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING HASN'T BEEN SEEN. WITH MORE RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ON
THE WAY...WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING ANY MAJOR OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING BUT MORE LOCALIZED
ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ANOTHER THING TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR IS RUNOFF AND ROCK- OR MUDSLIDES IN THE TERRAIN AREAS. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO LOOSENING ROCK. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1047 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       16 SE IDAHO FALLS       43.33N 111.81W
05/19/2015  M1.24 INCH       BONNEVILLE         ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR TOTAL. ONE INCH FELL IN A SINGLE HOUR.

&&

GWICKLUN