Wildfire in Idaho, August 24 to 31, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATED OVER THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS SRN IDAHO HELPING TO SPARK A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BEAR LAKE AREA EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL
PASSING ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW MORE CELLS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AND THUS HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A
WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER OFF-SHORE AS IT
TAKES UP A POSITION OFF THE NW COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ROTATE A SUB-TROPICAL WAVE
NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE IDAHO BORDER AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SHEAR NE INTO WYOMING WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. I SUSPECT THAT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO SE IDAHO MAY INHIBIT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING SO HAVE LIMITED THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS MAY STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BASED ON
GREATER SOLAR HEATING ESPECIALLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL PLUME. WE WILL SEE WHAT TUESDAYS MODEL RUNS HAVE TO OFFER
BEFORE STEPPING OUT ON THAT LIMB. THE MODELS SHOW THE SUB-TROPICAL
WAVE CLEARING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MOIST
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW
POSITIONED OFF THE NW COAST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER DAY WITH DIFFERING
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO PONDER HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CERTAINLY SHOW A POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WIND AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH ALL THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IT IS
DIFFICULT/IMPOSSIBLE TO POINT TO ANY ONE PERIOD OVER ANOTHER AT THIS
POINT. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH UNTIL THE MODELS
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN TERMS OF SMOKE
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...BUT IT STILL DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT YET. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT RIGHT NOTHING IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A RISK
WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HAINES OF 5 AND 6 WILL REMAIN...WITH THE
AREA OF 6 OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHRINKING A BIT TO MAINLY EAST
OF THE 93 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOMORROW SO NO RED FLAG
CONCERNS FROM A WIND/HUMIDITY STANDPOINT. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
A WEAK STORM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO IS STILL COMING FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...NOTHING
MORE THE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST.
WE COULD SEE UP TO 0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WITH
ANYWHERE ELSE SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&