Wildfire in Hawaii, August 8 to 10, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE TRADES SOME. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. FOR NEXT WEEK...ALL
INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE HILDA LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES TO THE ISLANDS TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY. ON MONDAY THE HIGH
IS NORTH OF 40N AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL PLAY A PART IN THE
TRADES WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. THIS AGREES WITH THE MODELS DEPICTION OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. THAT BEING SAID...RADAR SHOWS LIMITED SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER
THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS
ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS DOWN OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MORE OF AN
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS
MOVE ONSHORE. THESE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE TYPICAL TRADE WIND LIKE
SHOWERS.

THE RETURN TO MODERATE...LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES TODAY WILL HELP TO
EASE THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FROM JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ENOUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW
WEEK WHEN THERE COULD BE A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN
HONOLULU SHOWS HURRICANE HILDA NEARING THE VICINITY OF THE
BIG ISLAND NEXT WEEK SOMETIME LATE TUE OR EARLY WED. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT INTENSITY...TRACK OR FORECAST TREND HILDA
WILL EXHIBIT BY THAT TIME. REMAIN INFORMED ABOUT THE PROGRESS OF
HILDA BY LISTENING TO THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
OR VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII FOR THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND WEATHER PRODUCTS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SFC HIGH FAR N OF THE STATE WILL SUPPLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. VAD WIND AND MORNING AMDAR
PROFILES SHOW THE LAYER HAVING WINDS UP TO 30 KT. THE AMDAR REPORTS
ALSO SHOW TWO INVERSIONS...ONE BETWEEN 9 AND 10 THOUSAND FEET AND A
SECOND INVERSION NEAR 4 THOUSAND FEET. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IS POSTED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES THIS MORNING THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS APPROACHES. PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER
ISLANDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BUILD UP ALONG THE LEEWARD SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK
HAVING BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND FEET. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ POSTED FOR THE NORMALLY WINDIER WATERS NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
WITH THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED.

AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY HILDA COULD REACH THE
ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
SPECIFICS WITH REGARDS TO LOCAL SURF FROM HILDA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON