Guam, 2015

Hurricane in Guam, March 26 to 31, 2015

March 26 to 31, 2015 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Between the 26th and 31st of March, Typhoon Maysak moved across Chuuk and Yap|States in Micronesia. It killed four people in Chuuk Lagoon, and flattened much of Ulithi Atoll in Yap State.

The toll

Deaths
4
Injuries
10
Property damage
$4.0 million
Crop damage
$2.0 million
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Between the 26th and 31st of March, Typhoon Maysak moved across Chuuk and Yap|States in Micronesia. It killed four people in Chuuk Lagoon, and flattened much of Ulithi Atoll in Yap State.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 6:26 AM UTC, 7 hours 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 6:26 AM UTC, 7 hours 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
426 PM CHST WED MAR 25 2015

RESENT FOR POSTING ON WEBSITE

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY NEAR GUAM WITH MORE
SHOWERS SEEN EAST OF THE MARIANAS IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE. A
WEAK CIRCULATION IS FOUND SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 5N140E WHILE A
LARGER...MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...CIRCULATION IS FOUND NEAR
KOSRAE AND 5N164E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
WILL BE A WEAK SHEAR LINE FEATURE WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST
DAYS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE JUST SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE CIRCULATION
NOW NEAR KOSRAE. SEE THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS SECTION FOR MORE INFO ON
THIS DISTURBANCE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
DAYTIME WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT
BY SATURDAY...LIKELY REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SURF WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING
HIGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR KOSRAE...JTWC INVEST 98W. GFS AND NAVGEM
BOTH DEVELOP THE CIRCULATION MORE AGGRESSIVELY AND SEND IT FARTHER
NORTH THAN DOES THE ECMWF. NAVGEM MOVES IT SLOWER... SHOWING IT
PASSING OVER GUAM AROUND WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS PASSES IT BY TO THE
SOUTH OF  GUAM LATE MONDAY. ECMWF INDICATES A MUCH LESS ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PASSING FARTHER SOUTH OF GUAM...ALONG 10N...LATE SUNDAY.
FOR NOW...FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS WITH THE
CIRCULATION PASSING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WIND FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS A VERY BROAD...DEVELOPING CIRCULATION
CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO KOSRAE. JTWC IS CURRENTLY CARRYING THIS
SYSTEM AS LOW INVEST AREA 98W. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY CARRIES WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN 7N AND 15N. BOTH MAJURO AND POHNPEI LIE CLOSE TO 7N...
WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECASTS FOR THESE LOCALES DIFFICULT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 98W WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BASED ON THIS
FORECAST WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS CONSERVATIVE FOR ALL 3 FORECAST
LOCALES. GFS SEEMS TO INITIALIZE THE CIRCULATION THE BEST...SO
WILL FAVOR THIS MODEL...WHICH PROGS THE CENTER OF 98W PASSING
CLOSE TO POHNPEI ON THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERED NUMEROUS COVERAGE
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY WORDING FOR BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SHORT TERM
FORECASTS...BUT BELIEVE STRONG WIND SHEAR OVER 98W WILL LIMIT
SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AND REDUCE THAT CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. LONG TERM PATTERN FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA REMAINS
UNSETTLED AS MODELS CALL FOR ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MARSHALLS EARLY NEXT WEEK VIA ROSSBY WAVE TRAIN
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM 98W.

FORECAST TRACK AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF 98W...AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE WIND FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTS
THE WORST OF THE SEAS AND SURF ASSOCIATED WITH 98W WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF ALL 3 FORECAST LOCALES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT IF 98W WERE TO DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY
AND TAKE A TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WINDS AND SEAS HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT...AS WELL AS HIGH SURF...MAY BE POSSIBLE ON/NEAR
POHNPEI IN A DAY OR TWO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 5N140E. LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIES MAINLY EAST OF KOROR
AND SOUTH OF YAP. CONVECTION NEAR CHUUK WAS TAPERING OFF IN
RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF 98W.

FOR CHUUK...HAVE REDUCED SHORT TERM WINDS DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND
FIELD SEEN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF 98W IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETRY.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ASSUMED TRACK OF 98W WILL TAKE IT NORTH OF CHUUK ON
SATURDAY. HAVE ASSUMED SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT AS IT DOES SO.
HEAVIEST WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 98W SHOULD PASS NORTH OF
CHUUK...BUT SWELL FROM 98W COULD BRING HIGH SURF TO CHUUK AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR KOROR AND YAP...TRADE-WIND CONVECTION NORTH OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL HOLD ON THROUGH SUNDAY OVER YAP...THEN
SUBSIDENT REGION ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF 98W SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 98W SHOULD PASS NORTH OF BOTH
KOROR AND YAP...BUT IF 98W TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...
POPS...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED...
ESPECIALLY FOR YAP.

NORTHEAST SWELL BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL CLIP KOROR ON THURSDAY...BUT LATEST
ALTIMETRY AND SCATTEROMETRY SUGGESTS LARGEST SWELL IN THE FETCH
GENERATION REGION NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF
KOROR AND YAP. SWELL FROM 98W COULD AFFECT YAP AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT AND KOROR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...STAY TUNED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

W. AYDLETT/MCELROY

Event by event

1 hurricane (typhoon). Local standard time, as filed.

Hurricane (Typhoon), Micronesia

When
March 26, 12:00 AM GST to March 31, 11:59 PM GST
Where
Micronesia forecast zone
Category
5
Deaths
4 direct, 0 indirect
Injuries
10 direct, 0 indirect
Property damage
$4.0 million
Crop damage
$2.0 million
Reported by
Emergency Manager

On the night of the 26th of March, a tropical disturbance was noted 135 miles east-southeast of Pohnpei. It became the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. By the afternoon of the 27th the system intensified to become Tropical Depression (TD) 04W. It was located 35 miles west of Pohnpei at that time. By the night of the 27th, 04W had become a tropical storm. At that time, it was located 320 miles east of Chuuk. The tropical storm was eventually named Maysak.

By the morning of the 29th, Maysak intensified into a typhoon. At this time, it was |65 miles east of Chuuk and 30 miles north of Losap. The typhoon passed across Chuuk Lagoon on that day. The highest wind gust recorded at the Weather Service Office (WSO) on Weno Island in Chuuk Lagoon on the afternoon of the 29th was 71 mph. The typhoon also brought between 6 and 7 inches of rain to Weno Island in Chuuk Lagoon.

The typhoon caused four reported deaths on Weno in Chuuk State, two adults and two children. One male adult died after a tree fell on his house and the other adult died in a mudslide. One of the children died from injury due to a sheet of airborne tin and the other child was a newborn in distress who did not make it to the hospital because fallen trees blocked the roads. Ten additional people were treated for injuries sustained from Typhoon Maysak.

International Office for Migration (IOM) staff in Weno, Chuuk, reported roofs of buildings blown off, damaged seawalls, power lines down, and that a number of houses, stores, and local market stands were destroyed. Damage to crops was extensive with breadfruit, coconut, and mango trees being felled. The damages included 80 percent of the breadfruit and banana trees were damaged and 80 percent of taro plants were also damaged. 830 homes were heavily damaged or destroyed in Chuuk and more than 6700 people were displaced.

Apart from the damage across the Chuuk Lagoon and several atolls, the typhoon was also responsible for the sinking or damaging of vessels at the Chuuk port. The Truk Siren and Lien Pwaki, two vessels in Chuuk Lagoon, sunk or were partially submerged as a result of the storm. Nien Neufich, Nien Chuuk, Miss Transco, The Odyssey, Micro Peace, Exodus and the Chinese vessel, Wing Dong, had run aground and were damaged. The Exodus sank at Mechitiw.

Other locations in Chuuk State also reported damage. On the 29th of March, Fananu and Nomwin reported damage to crops. Onoun reported that food crops were destroyed. Polowat indicated the there were damages to trees, crops and houses. In Pollap, it was reported that almost all houses are seriously damaged, |and that trees and crops damaged. A situation overview via SSB radio between Disaster Coordination Office (DCO) staff and a Municipal government official on Losap Island in the Upper Morlocks indicates partial damage to water and food supplies and agriculture, and identified their most critical need as food. An estimated $2.4 million damage was done to Chuuk's infrastructure.

After passing through Chuuk State, Typhoon Maysak crossed Yap State. On the evening of March 30th, the storm passed about 30 miles to the north of Yap's outer island of Faraulep. This island has an estimated population of 170 people. Radio communication with the island on the next day indicated that there were no injuries or fatalities caused by the typhoon. Fruit trees were, however, reported down, but boats were undamaged. There was also contamination of fresh water wells and taro |patches were inundated with salt water. There was also damage to buildings including the dispensary.

On the afternoon of the 31st Maysak become a Super Typhoon. A super Typhoon is one that has winds equal to and exceeding 150 mph. At this time Maysak was only 55 miles east-northeast of Fais. Late on the night of the 31st, Maysak passed about 55 Mile northwest of Fais and 35 miles northeast of Ulithi. Communications with the Ulitihi High School principal on the morning of 31 March revealed that there were about 600 people on the island. The FSM 2010 Census indicates 294 people on the island of Fais, which is described as a raised coral island with a maximum elevation of 59 feet.

Reports from Ulithi indicated that the typhoon knocked down many trees including large fruit trees. Sea level inundation also destroyed crops and deposited salt into the soil. It will take time to desalinate the soil, approximately a year before the crops can be replanted. Many houses were damaged on Ulithi. Despite the high winds, there were no deaths or serious injuries on Ulithi Atoll.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Hurricane (Typhoon), Micronesia2015-03-26MaleUnknownDirect
Hurricane (Typhoon), Micronesia2015-03-26MaleUnknownDirect
Hurricane (Typhoon), Micronesia2015-03-26MaleUnknownDirect
Hurricane (Typhoon), Micronesia2015-03-26FemaleUnknownDirect

What these are

Hurricane (Typhoon)
A tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or more, filed per forecast zone for its wind, and with separate events for its flooding, surge and tornadoes.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, March 2015The 2015 hurricane season

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 579262.