Rip Current in Guam, January 2, 2015

Name: Rip Current in Guam, January 2, 2015
Start: 2015-01-02T00:00
End: 2015-01-02T04:00
Location: Guam

January 2, 2015 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Strong currents caused the deaths of two people in Saiapn.

The toll

Deaths: 2
Injuries: 1
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Strong currents caused the deaths of two people in Saiapn.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 5:24 AM UTC, 8 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 1, 5:24 AM UTC, 8 hours 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
324 PM CHST THU JAN 1 2015

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS.
MODERATE TRADE-WIND FLOW AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE MARIANAS. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS FOUND UPSTREAM OF THE
MARIANAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND THE CNMI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE CROSSING 150E. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE TO THE MARIANAS FRIDAY NIGHT SO INCREASED SHOWER
COVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
TRADE-WIND INVERSION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE MARIANAS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST
OF THE MARIANAS SATURDAY WITH DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITION RESUMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOYS SHOW SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET CORRELATING
CLOSELY WITH SATELLITE ALTIMETRY. EXPANSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN IS GENERATING
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AND INCREASE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE MARIANAS. SWELL MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS...ESPECIALLY
SAIPAN AND TINIAN...AS SWELL WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FARTHER
NORTH. FOR NOW MAINTAINED WORDING IN SURF FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
HAZARDOUS SURF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE COME DOWN A
BIT IN TERMS OF THE 10 FEET COMBINED SEAS THRESHOLD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LEVELS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL PROGRESS FARTHER WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF 5N THAT IS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KOSRAE.
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE JUST MOVING ACROSS THE DATE LINE...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF WETTER WEATHER TO MAJURO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN POHNPEI AND CHUUK DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE
PROLONGING SHOWERY CONDITIONS AT KOSRAE THRU THE WEEKEND. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF THE SUB- TROPICAL HIGH SLIDING
EASTWARD FROM MINAMI TORISHIMA WILL USHER IN DRIER TRADE WINDS.

THE MAJURO/KALO BUOY REPORTS SEAS AROUND 7 FEET...WHILE DATA FROM
BOTH SATELLITE DERIVED SEA HEIGHTS AND COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS
NEAR 10 FEET...WHICH WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT OPERATION
ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELL
AND WIND WAVES WILL ALSO PROLONG THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
KOSRAE THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA DISCUSSION ABOVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SIMILAR.

FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL AT YAP AND KOROR
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. SATELLITE DOES SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS
MODESTLY DIVERGENT...SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY WETTER
WEATHER COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK FROM THE EAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON

Event by event

1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Rip Current, Saipan

When: January 2, 12:00 AM GST to 4:00 AM GST
Where: Saipan forecast zone
Deaths: 2 direct, 0 indirect
Injuries: 1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by: Newspaper

A 6 year old girl and a 16 year old boy died after being swept out into the ocean by waves while on a hike. The two people were part of a group of six hikers who encounter rough water and waves. The group hiked along the southeast coast of Saiapn near the Forbidden Island Sanctuary.

The group of hikers included four males ages 32,29, 21, and 16 years of age and two girls 8 and 6 years of age.

The two girls were swept out to sea by waves. One of the men and the teenage boy jumped into the water to rescue them. The man was able to recover the girls and take them to an area of calmer water. The 16 year old boy, however encounter trouble and struggled to hold onto rocks within the water.

The man who rescued the girls began to perform CPR on one of them. He continued to perform CPR until the girl was airlifted to the Commonwealth Health Center by a Navy Helicopter. The six year old girl was later pronounced dead due to drowning and the eight year old girl had abrasions on her left knee.

A search was conducted for the 16 year old boy. The boy's body was found the next day near the area where the incident took place.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Rip Current, Saipan	2015-01-02	16	Male	In Water	Direct
Rip Current, Saipan	2015-01-02	6	Female	In Water	Direct

What these are

Rip Current: A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Guam in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in Guam, January 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 560234.