Hail, Stephens
- When
- May 10, 4:00 PM EST
- Where
- Stephens County, 2.68 mi NW of Toccoa Falls
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 34.630, -83.380
Spotter reported quarter size hail on Black Mountain Rd.
Widely scattered thunderstorms developing across the mountains during the early and mid-afternoon pushes into the foothills and Piedmont late in the afternoon. One storm produced localized wind damage and large hail across northern Stephens County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Widely scattered thunderstorms developing across the mountains during the early and mid-afternoon pushes into the foothills and Piedmont late in the afternoon. One storm produced localized wind damage and large hail across northern Stephens County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 3:59 PM EST, 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ANA WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSIT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FLOWS UP FROM THE GULF AND INTO
OUR AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN TRIGGERING MAINLY IN
AREAS ALONG THE ERN ESCARPMENT OF THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH WEAKER SHOWERS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77 FROM THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ANA. THE STRONGEST
TSTMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
AREA IN THE REGION OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG SBCAPE VALUES. ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUED HAIL THREAT UNTIL SUNSET...AND THEN ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL POSE AN ISOLD HYDRO THREAT AS THE STEERING FLOW
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. CONVECTION WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS STABILIZE...BUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER.
MONDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ATOP THE CWFA...AS A
LARGE TROF EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE BL WILL BE QUITE
MOIST...WITH DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S ACRS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE TEMPS SHUD WARM BACK INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. SO FCST
SNDGS SHOW STRONG SBCAPE...1500-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND DOWNBURST POTENTIAL LOOKS MUTED GIVEN WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS OVER 10 KFT. SO EXPECT OVERALL BETTER TSTM COVERAGE ACRS THE
AREA (40-60 POP)...BUT SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS GIVEN THE GOOD
INSTBY. THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS WELL...AS
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NITE BEFORE
A DAMPENING UPPER TROF CROSSES ON TUE. AT THE SFC...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MONDAY NITE...THEN REDEVELOPING ON
TUE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN. BULK SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TUE AS WINDS
INCREASE WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROF. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK AS INDICATED ON EVEN THE MOST ROBUST GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT THUNDER TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85
WITH ONLY A VERY LOW SVR THREAT AT BEST. TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WED WITH NWLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC...
DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS FROM NEAR NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THU...THEN IS
KNOCKED DOWN FRI BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. RIDGING
RETURNS FOR SAT AND SUN...ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA SUN.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU THEN OFF SHORE FRI. SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS FRI IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT NEAR THE OH VALLEY.
THE MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUES SAT. EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA SUN WITH A CONTINUED CHC OF CONVECTION...BUT COULD
HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL THU...
FALL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRI...RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SAT THEN BACK
ABOVE NORMAL SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS IN THE NE FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR FROM THE EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL PROFILES AGREE IN KEEPING CIGS VFR AS THE
MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE RUNS INTO DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. WILL RETAIN LOW
END GUSTS THROUGH SUNSET...AND VCSH AS WELL. STILL EXPECT MORE
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING LOWER THAN
VFR. ON MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF ANA WILL DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE
AREA...BUT LEAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEHIND. SO EXPECTING A CU FIELD
TO DEVELOP WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION...WITH INITIATION LIKELY STARTING IN THE
MTNS. I THINK THE BEST CHC AT KCLT WILL BE AFTER 18Z...SO NO MENTION
WITH THIS TAF UPDATE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW BY LATE MORNING...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS
LATE THIS AFTN AND WILL THREATEN MAINLY KAVL AND THE UPSTATE TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNSET...WHERE TEMPO TSRA COULD BE NEEDED. RAIN BANDS
WELL WEST OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA REMNANTS COULD APPROACH
KHKY...BUT WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF REACHING THE AIRFIELD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN TRICKY THRU THE EVENING HOURS AS FLOW LIGHTENS ACROSS
THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE...BUT WITH
LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. MAY SEE SOME MTN VLY FOG...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR VSBY AT KAVL TO SHOW THE TREND. IF KAND GETS
RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME MORNING FOG THERE AS WELL. ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MORE INSTBY AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. IT WILL MOST LIKELY GET STARTED IN THE MTNS
AROUND MIDDAY...SO WILL MENTION PROB30 AT KAVL. BUT THE PIEDMONT
SITES WILL SEE BEST CHCS AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SW AND REMAIN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK/HGHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510- SCZ001>007-010>012-019-111930- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY- MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD- POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD- 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-111930- ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER- 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 259 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 GAZ010-SCZ001-101930- RABUN GA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC- 259 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN RABUN AND NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT... AT 259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALHALLA...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OCONEE STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OCONEE STATE PARK...PINE MOUNTAIN AND MOUNTAIN REST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES. CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. && LAT...LON 3500 8322 3500 8311 3486 8305 3485 8323 TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 353DEG 6KT 3496 8317 08
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
GAZ010-SCZ001-102000-
RABUN GA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL RABUN AND
NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...
AT 327 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAYTON...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SKY VALLEY...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON...MOUNTAIN CITY...TIGER...SKY VALLEY...BLACK ROCK MOUNTAIN
STATE PARK...DILLARD...LAKEMONT...TALLULAH GORGE STATE PARK...PINE
MOUNTAIN AND LONG CREEK.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3500 8334 3500 8323 3492 8312 3469 8328
3487 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 041DEG 11KT 3493 8326
HGSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
NCZ062-102045-
MACON NC-
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MACON
COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
AT 415 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTAHALA
LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAINBOW SPRINGS.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3513 8361 3515 8339 3499 8342 3499 8348
3500 8351 3500 8352 3502 8352 3504 8354
3504 8356 3507 8357 3509 8359 3510 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 276DEG 4KT 3506 8354
08SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
NCZ064-065-102115-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-
443 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
TRANSYLVANIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...
AT 443 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF BREVARD...OR OVER DUPONT STATE FOREST...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUPONT STATE FOREST...CRAB CREEK...LITTLE RIVER IN TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTY AND CEDAR MOUNTAIN.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3519 8242 3516 8245 3516 8246 3518 8246
3516 8253 3516 8255 3515 8257 3514 8260
3514 8261 3513 8263 3526 8265 3529 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 325DEG 4KT 3522 8258
08The Greer radar (KGSP), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:59 UTC.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotter reported quarter size hail on Black Mountain Rd.
Spotter reported multiple trees blown down along Black Mountain Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 574028, 574027.