Hail in Georgia, April 9, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ATOP THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM...A HEALTHY CU FIELD...ORGANIZED IN STREETS...
EXISTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR INDICATED A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OUT OF EASTERN TN/NRN GA...WITH
ENHANCED CU ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A BAND OF SBCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO
NO CIN. IT APPEARS THAT A SUMMER-TYPE CONVECTION SCENARIO MAY PLAY
OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE
RATE OF CU DEVELOPMENT AND RADAR TRENDS...CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. CAMS SEEM TO
SUPPORT THIS PROCESS EVOLVING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND
FOCUS THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IT CERTAIN APPEARS THAT BASED ON AMOUNT OF CAPE AND
TIMING OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC
FOOTHILLS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CATE POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS
EAST ACROSS THE UNIFOUR...LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH
SOLID CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. CORE HEIGHTS WOULD LIKELY NEED CORES
AROUND 23.5 KFT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS OF DCAPE >1000 J/KG. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...CLUSTERS OF TSRA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
MIDNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BL WILL COOL WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SEA BREEZE...CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING EAST OF THE
SATELLITE. IF THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES AS GUIDANCE INDICATES...CAPE
VALUES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. I EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TONIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT AND STRUCTURE. TONIGHT...LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 60S EAST.

FRIDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT A BAND MAY EXHIBIT SOME BOWING AS IT ARRIVES ALONG THE
TN BORDER AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG AND H85 FLOW
FROM THE SW...UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE THE EASTERN PUSH
ACROSS THE MTNS. I WILL INDICATE POPS PEAKING AROUND 90-100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK...THEN FALLING THROUGH MID
DAY. AS THE REMNANT BAND PUSHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER BAND ON CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS WILL SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 M/S. POPS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 TO LIKELY
TO CATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON BAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SVR WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM /00Z SATURDAY/. WILL PROBABLY HAVE
SOME LINGERING THUNDER POTENTIAL BUT ONLY IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
THROUGH 03-06Z BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING TREND BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...AT 00Z SATURDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS THOSE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT ZONES
/MORE IMPRESSIVE ON THE GFS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE UPWARDS OF 1000
J/KG/...BUT BEST INSTABILITY BY THIS TIME HAS PUSHED FARTHER EAST
INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH
LINGERING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BETWEEN 40-60KT 0-6KM /0-1KM SHEAR LESS
THAN 30KT/...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ITSELF HOWEVER...
COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONG STORMS

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH WILL ALSO BE
LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST CANADA BY THEN...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINNING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO
NEARLY ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH SO CAA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE WITH OVERALL A WEAKENING TREND IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. BUT STILL A VERY
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS /BUT STILL A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE/. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH OVERALL A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH WE WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SKY COVER AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TREND TOWARD AN UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK
WITHIN THE PROGGED DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW REGIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DEPICT INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWER CHANCES BECOMING MORE PROBABLE WITH TIME AS MONDAY WEARS ON.
THE MOISTENING GULF AND ATLANTIC FETCH LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL WHERE POPS WILL BE BUMPED UP INTO A MORE SOLID
RANGE. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSE TO CLIMO...ESPECIALLY WHEN FAVORING THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AS
SHOWN ON THE ECMWF...KEEPING THE FRONTAL ZONE AND COOLER AIR NORTH
OF THE CWFA.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH
AND/OR ORIENTATION OF EASTERN CONUS DAMMING HIPRES IS LOW...SO
WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM CLIMO WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
SOLID PCPN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT TO BKN CLOUD STREETS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO LIMITED TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. AT 1737Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGE INDICATED A WEAK
DISTURBANCE RIPPLING ACROSS EASTERN TN/NRN GA. I EXPECTED THAT
COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE...I WILL INDICATE A
TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 23Z TO 3Z. AFTER 3Z...TSRA CLUSTERS SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE REGION....LEAVING SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND STEADY
SSW WINDS. SHORT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS
INTO THE TEENS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT COULD PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
14Z TO 16Z...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30.

ELSEWHERE...OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE CLT
DISCUSSION. HOWEVER...KAVL SHOULD SEE VCSH OR VCTS AROUND THE
TERMINAL BY 20Z...BASED ON THE APPROACH OF ENHANCED CU. CAMS
INDICATE THAT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...A FEW SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT COVERAGE WILL
BECOME THE GREATEST ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING. I
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE KHKY TAF WITH A TEMPO FROM 22Z TO 2Z. CONDITION
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY SSW WINDS.
HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. I WILL HIGHLIGHT EACH TAF WITH A
PROB30...WILL USE A TEMPO AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
321 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE MORNING WILL BE FROM LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

NCZ049-053-505-092000-
BUNCOMBE NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-YANCEY NC-
311 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BUNCOMBE...
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EAST ASHEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAST ASHEVILLE...NORTH ASHEVILLE...DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...WEST
ASHEVILLE...BLACK MOUNTAIN...WOODFIN...SWANNANOA...OLD FORT...B.R.
PARKWAY...LITTLE SWITZERLAND TO LINVILLE AND WARREN WILSON COLLEGE.

LAT...LON 3591 8214 3582 8214 3582 8212 3585 8210
      3586 8204 3588 8202 3587 8200 3590 8198
      3584 8193 3581 8199 3577 8194 3571 8203
      3568 8204 3550 8251 3565 8262 3592 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 244DEG 25KT 3560 8252

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-092100-
HART GA-ELBERT GA-ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-
409 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN HART...
CENTRAL ELBERT...CENTRAL ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RUSSELL STATE PARK...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF ELBERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...ELBERTON...MIDDLETON...HOMELAND PARK...BELTON...HONEA
PATH...IVA...LAKE SECESSION...STARR AND LOWNDESVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3404 8282 3416 8299 3464 8261 3442 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 222DEG 23KT 3418 8283

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