Weak easterly flow led to a sea breeze collision over the western half of the Florida peninsula, generating scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. A few of these storms produced hail up to 1 inch in diameter and damaging wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Weak easterly flow led to a sea breeze collision over the western half of the Florida peninsula, generating scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. A few of these storms produced hail up to 1 inch in diameter and damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 1:57 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 257 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROUGHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SUPPORTING A ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN TURNING WESTWARD THROUGH TEXAS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS ANCHORED BY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN AND IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA NOW LIES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AND FURTHER WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE ALREADY SHOWING A LOW LEVEL CU/SC CLOUD DECK MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE THE STARTING POINT FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY BETWEEN 19-20Z IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH 00Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER 80S ALREADY AND WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED ON TUESDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTING SIMILIAR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR MORNINGS...HOT TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE A RATHER LIGHT FLOW WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN ABOUT 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES...WE SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER INLAND AREAS. LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SETTING UP AN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND THUS TAKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BACK TO INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS SET UP. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18-20Z. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...OVERALL EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF COAST WATERS. THE ONLY EXPECTED CHANGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PATTERN SETS UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SURGES AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVERALL DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY MOVE FROM THE LAND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THAT WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLD. AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEING STORMS EARLIER AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 90 74 90 / 40 40 30 40 FMY 71 92 71 92 / 20 60 30 40 GIF 72 92 72 92 / 30 40 20 40 SRQ 71 88 71 88 / 40 50 30 30 BKV 68 91 68 92 / 40 40 30 40 SPG 75 89 73 89 / 40 40 30 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 532 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165- 239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870- 873-876-120945- SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY- COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO- COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA- COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS- INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE- INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS- CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND- COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- 532 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. RUDE
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 144 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:15 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
The ASOS at Regional Southwest Airport (KRSW) measured a 51 knot thunderstorm wind gust.
An off duty Levy County Fire and Rescue captain reported dime to nickel sized hail.
Levy County Fire and Rescue reported a Large oak tree was knocked down and a center pivot irrigation system was blown over by estimated 50 mph winds.
Levy County Department of Public Safety sent pictures of wind damage to a metal porch roof and damage to a barn.
Numerous large tree limbs were reported down in Lovers Key State Park.
A report was received from the public of nickel to quarter sized hail and heavy rain near Temple Terrace.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 566600, 566602, 566605, 566618, 566619, 566607.