Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 4, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE FIRING ACROSS THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE KEYS AT THE
SAME TIME. THIS WILL REINFORCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL TRAIL THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND KEYS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY GET INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST. SO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS ONLY
FORECAST TO BRIEFLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IN THE ARKLATEX
REGION. LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY THEN BUILD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING, BUT THUNDER FOR NOW IS RESERVED TO CELLS WEST
OF HOMESTEAD. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE COLLISIONS, ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY WEST
OF THE TERMINALS. HEAVY SHOWER ALREADY OVER KOPF WITH MVFR CONDS,
AND THAT CELL WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH, PERHAPS EVEN BACKBUILDING
TO KMIA OR JUST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. KOPF/KMIA/KTMB AND
POINTS WEST MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE WITH STATIONARY SHOWER/STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP AND
SIT OVER TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET. A SIMILAR PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT EACH DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY ERODES. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY VARIABLE AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  74  88 /  10  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  76  86 /  20  40  40  50
MIAMI            76  89  75  88 /  20  60  50  60
NAPLES           74  89  73  87 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
847 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050100-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
847 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, MAINLY INTERIOR AND EAST COAST...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE PRIMARY LOCATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.

VISIBILITY: A COMBINATION OF SMOKE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MUD LAKE FIRE COMPLEX AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS, MAINLY
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

WATERSPOUTS: BECAUSE OF TODAY'S LIGHT E TO SE WINDS, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR CONVERGENT LINES OF
CLOUDS OR SHOWERS, IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING
IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.