A cold front over SE Ga combined with a moist and unstable airmass produced locally heavy rainfall across NE Florida.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A cold front over SE Ga combined with a moist and unstable airmass produced locally heavy rainfall across NE Florida.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 3:50 PM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 450 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SO FAR THINGS HAVE UNFOLDED PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SO FAR TODAY. THIS WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO HAS CONVECTION FILLS IN ACROSS ALL OF NE FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STORMS STALL OR WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVY RAIN SETS UP OVER URBAN AREAS. ORGANIZED FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING HOWEVER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SHORT FUSED FLOOD WARNINGS. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SE GA AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG A TROUGH AXIS AND THEN PUSH INTO A MOIST AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SE GA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...INTENSE DOWNPOURS...AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. .SHORT TERM...WEEKEND... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL EARLY SAT MORNING THEN STALLING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL EARLY SAT WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GNV-SGJ LINE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER SE GA SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COASTAL SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS NE FL SUN...WITH AGAIN BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP FOCUSED TOWARD I-75 CORRIDOR IN NE FL SUN AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND ACROSS SE WERE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL RISE WHILE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS NE FL WERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...MON-FRI... MON-TUE...STACKED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE A MEAN TOUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BRING AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST TRANSITIONING TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTN. ADVERTISED A DIURNAL PRECIP TREND AND CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30-50% ACROSS NE FL TO 20-30% OVER SE GA WHERE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER SE GA UNDER STRONGER SUBSIDENCE TO NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO OVER NE FL WHERE GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE 70S. WED-FRI...THE GFS ENSEMBLE CARVES OUT A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS NOSES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS S FL. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW WILL ENABLE THE MEANDERING TROUGH AXIS OVER S FL TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH MEAN LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING AS WELL. STEERING FLOW SHIFT FROM S TO SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN OF A DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME AND HIGHER AFTN/EVENING RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED BACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALSO SE GA. ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 40-50% FOR INLAND AREAS AND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION... THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS NE FL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO EITHER STALL OR SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL SHOW TEMPO GROUPS WITH IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL BUT AMENDMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SE GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AT THE SE GA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. && .MARINE... WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE GA WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY...MONITORING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE S FORK OF BLACK CREEK AT PENNY FARMS. BASED ON 12-16 HR ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE RIVER THERE COULD RISE ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND FLIRT NEAR MINOR RIVER FLOODING LEVELS EARLY SAT MORNING. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 93 72 95 / 70 20 0 10 SSI 77 87 76 88 / 60 30 20 10 JAX 74 89 75 91 / 60 30 20 20 SGJ 75 87 76 87 / 60 40 20 30 GNV 74 90 73 91 / 60 60 20 30 OCF 74 89 74 91 / 60 80 30 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && SHULER/ENYEDI/WALSH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 421 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-250830- COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION- BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION- COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING- WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN- ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 421 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 ...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA... SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 441 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 FLZ030>032-036-037-242145- ALACHUA FL-BRADFORD FL-CLAY FL-UNION FL-PUTNAM FL- 441 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM...CENTRAL BRADFORD...NORTHEASTERN ALACHUA...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT... AT 440 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED NEAR LAKE GENEVA...OR NEAR KEYSTONE HEIGHTS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING STRIKES. TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... STARKE...KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...GEORGE'S LAKE...NEW RIVER...SAMPSON... LAKE GENEVA...WALDO...HAMPTON AND BROOKER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. LAT...LON 2976 8234 2999 8239 2992 8179 2974 8175 TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 003DEG 4KT 2984 8198 ZIBURA
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An observer measured 3.1 inches of rainfall in 2 hours in the Suwanee River Resort with minor flooding noted.
An NWS employee measured 2.7 inches of rainfall within 1 hour.
Roads were flooded and several cars stranded due to flood waters in historic St. Augustine. Flood waters were up to the doors of many structures.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596061, 596060, 596057.