Tornadoes and Heavy Rain in Florida, August 3, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA MAY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW STRONG. SO
FOR NOW LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHES OR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE FLOW IS NEARLY DUE SOUTH BUT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
POSSIBLY KEEP DIRECTION FROM THE SSE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SSE-
SSW SURFACE WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND 15-17Z. THESE CELLS WILL THEN
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH SO JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. THUS, LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL THOSE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  78  91 /  40  40  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  90  80  90 /  30  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  90 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
032030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
418 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY WILL REACH THE 100 TO 105
RANGE DURING THE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.