Flooding and Damaging Winds in Florida, August 3, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS EAST...SOME DRYING
WILL WORK AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THESE BREAKS
BECOME MORE COMMON...DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PULLS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTH FROM IT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...EXPECTING CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH.

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOIST SW STEERING FLOW WITH PWATS
REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DIRUNAL STORMS
WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE MERGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AUGUST NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO S GA BY SUNDAY WITH A MOISTURE SW FLOW PERSISTING.
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BECOME MORE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
AN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4 AM WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. THE REGION WILL THEN BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  95 /  20  20  20  30
SSI  76  93  75  88 /  30  30  30  30
JAX  74  92  75  92 /  30  50  30  50
SGJ  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  30  40
GNV  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  30  40
OCF  74  89  72  89 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

STRUBLE/ZIBURA/NELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
258 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-041900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
258 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.