A surface trough across SE Ga and NE Fl shifted south of the area through the day with low level easterly flow in its wake. East winds focused the best chances of afternoon and evening storms inland during the evening along and near the I-75 corridor where a few strong to severe storms developed.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface trough across SE Ga and NE Fl shifted south of the area through the day with low level easterly flow in its wake. East winds focused the best chances of afternoon and evening storms inland during the evening along and near the I-75 corridor where a few strong to severe storms developed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 2:34 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 334 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IS DELAYING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FLAGLER COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S. FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUTOFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN EXTENT OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INCREASE INTO EACH AFTERNOON AS SFC LAYER HEATS UP WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS PRODUCING SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS. SFC HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH COULD AFFECT COASTAL LAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF TS ERIKA. CURRENTLY...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE ON THE TRACK OF ERIKA PLACING THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF TITUSVILLE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HURRICANE. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS DEPENDENT ON ITS INTENSITY AND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA INTO THIS WEEKEND. LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A STRONGER STORM CURVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSING UP THE EAST COAST OF FL AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK STORM CURVING LESS SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRACKING UP THE FL PENINSULA. THE CURRENT LOCAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES...PRIMARILY IN COASTAL AREAS... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. COASTAL AND INLAND FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF COULD BE ISSUES IF THE STRONGER STORM SOLUTION MATERIALIZES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RECEIVED. WPC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES IN COASTAL NE FL WITH HIGHEST TOTALS JUST OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THIS LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORMS PROGRESSION. && .AVIATION... INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA FOR 20-00Z KGNV/KVQQ WHERE MAY BE BETTER COVERAGE THAN FOR TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WHERE JUST KEPT VCTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...REFER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 90 73 90 / 40 60 20 60 SSI 75 85 77 86 / 40 60 40 50 JAX 75 87 74 89 / 50 60 40 60 SGJ 75 85 76 87 / 40 60 40 50 GNV 72 87 73 90 / 30 60 30 60 OCF 72 88 74 90 / 40 60 30 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && GUILLET/KENNEDY/WALKER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 405 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-281100- COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA- BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS- GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL- COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY- INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN- COASTAL CAMDEN- 405 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA... SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS STILL UNCERTAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
346 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
FLZ033-272015-
ST. JOHNS FL-
346 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ST. JOHNS COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
AT 345 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HASTINGS...ELKTON AND SPUDS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 2963 8147 2962 8148 2965 8152 2976 8153
2980 8157 2981 8157 2987 8149 2973 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 223DEG 6KT 2972 8147
SHASHYSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
FLZ035-272030-
GILCHRIST FL-
354 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GILCHRIST COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...
AT 354 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BELL. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELL AND GUARANTO SPRINGS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 2964 8296 2970 8296 2970 8294 2972 8296
2972 8294 2973 8295 2975 8294 2976 8295
2977 8295 2980 8292 2980 8293 2982 8293
2983 8290 2983 8289 2980 8272 2960 8285
2963 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 193DEG 4KT 2970 8292
SHASHYSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
FLZ021-272145-
SUWANNEE FL-
500 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
AT 500 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OBRIEN...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRING. THIS STORM WAS
DRIFTING NORTH.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OBRIEN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 3013 8279 3001 8279 2997 8280 2996 8289
3011 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 344DEG 1KT 3003 8287
PETERSONSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
520 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
GAZ136-151-152-272200-
WAYNE GA-BRANTLEY GA-PIERCE GA-
520 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIERCE...NORTH
CENTRAL BRANTLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
AT 519 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SCREVEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JESUP...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JESUP...PATTERSON...SCREVEN...OFFERMAN...HORTENSE AND BROADHURST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 3162 8181 3129 8190 3129 8219 3147 8215
3147 8213 3152 8213 3162 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 190DEG 10KT 3149 8199
PETERSONThe Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:26 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and transformers were damaged by strong winds.
About 15 minutes of nickel size hail was reported south of Wellborn.
Nickel to quarter size hail lasted about 15-20 minutes in Wellborn.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598997, 598995, 598996.