A coastal trough moved inland across SE Ga during the morning while NE Florida remained mostly dry through midday. Deeper moisture with PWAT values over 2 inches lifted northward and combined with diurnally instability fueled a few strong to severe storms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A coastal trough moved inland across SE Ga during the morning while NE Florida remained mostly dry through midday. Deeper moisture with PWAT values over 2 inches lifted northward and combined with diurnally instability fueled a few strong to severe storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 2:53 PM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 353 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 ...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK... .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AND DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT MEANDERED OVER NORTH FL AND EXTENDED WSW TO AN UNORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AXIS WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS EASTERN SEABOARD EDGING WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS AOA 2+ WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL FL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TREKKING ENE SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY. SHOWERS AND A FEW EARLY AFTERNOON TSTORMS ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE UNDER VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA WITH STORM MOTION TODAY DICTATED BY OUTFLOWS AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ONCE AIRMASS TSTORMS DROP OUTFLOWS WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING FROM E-W TODAY AS THE AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION FROM EARLY CONVECTION EAST TOWARD MORE INSTABILITY WESTWARD INTO THE AFTN/EVENING. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR/ARW/NMM/SREF GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POPPING ACROSS SE GA INTO THE EARLY EVENING PROGRESSING FROM E TO W AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S FROM WAYCROSS WESTWARD TO THE MID 80S COAST UNDER ONSHORE FLOW WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND GUSTO SOUTH OF I-10 ACROSS NE FL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS INCREASING MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE/RIVER BREEZE/OUTFLOWS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM FROM E TO W ACROSS NE FL INTO THE EVENING AS THE MORE DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TREKS INLAND. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GREATER CHANCES ACROSS NE FL GIVEN ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MORE MOISTURE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING CELLS ALONG OUTFLOWS AS WELL AS GUSTY WET DOWNBURST WINDS. TONIGHT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPPER OFF ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED TSTORMS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNDER PREVAILING SE FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL FLIRT WITH COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS TO THE MID/UPPER 70S TOWARD THE RIVER BASIN AND COAST. LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND INCREASED CLOUDS FROM ATLANTIC CONVECTION WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL EXPAND FARTHER INLAND AND BECOME EVEN MORE NUMEROUS OVER OUR INLAND ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN PREVAILING ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET BUT ONCE AGAIN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS PRIMARILY WEST OF I-95. THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS REFLECTED NORTHWARD. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...OUR MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WE WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS FOR NOW AND GO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS AND LOWER POPS A BIT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IF THE ECWMF SOLUTION COMES TRUE. && .AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHER INLAND FROM JAX TO GNV INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS PROBABLE. OVERNIGHT TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FADE INLAND DURING THE EVENING...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM SSI TO CRG TO SGJ THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. MAY SEE LIGHT MVFR DUE TO VISIBILITY INLAND AT GNV AND VQQ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE BUT SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PASSING CLOUDS. && .MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH LIGHT SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND COMBINED SEAS 3 FT OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN CONTROL ENE OF THE WATERS. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 90 72 90 / 20 50 20 70 SSI 77 86 75 87 / 30 50 40 40 JAX 75 88 73 88 / 30 50 20 60 SGJ 76 86 75 86 / 30 50 20 50 GNV 73 89 72 89 / 40 60 20 70 OCF 73 90 72 89 / 60 60 20 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && ENYEDI/SHULER/
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161900- COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION- BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION- COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING- WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN- ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA... SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...MAINLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL REGION-WIDE NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY MID TO LATE WEEK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 FLZ031-032-036-037-152045- ALACHUA FL-BRADFORD FL-CLAY FL-PUTNAM FL- 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD... SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND EAST CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT... AT 358 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE GENEVA...OR NEAR KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... STARKE...KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...MELROSE...GEORGE'S LAKE...LAKE GENEVA... FLORAHOME...ORANGE HEIGHTS...WALDO...HAMPTON AND PUTNAM HALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 2981 8179 2969 8181 2970 8220 2993 8216 TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 098DEG 9KT 2977 8195 WALSH
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:07 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter reported a damaging microburst with damage to tin roofs on a pump house and a chicken coop. The tin roofs were blown off and twisted. Two large branches from oak trees were snapped. Cost of damage was estimated.
Dispatch reported multiple trees downed and debris in the roadway near the intersection of County Road 246 and U.S. 441.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598905, 598904.