Wildfire in California, September 9 to 30, 2015

Name: Wildfire in California, September 9 to 30, 2015
Start: 2015-09-09T13:26
End: 2015-09-30T23:59
Location: California

September 9 to 30, 2015 · NWS STO · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Extreme fire behavior with winds and very dry fuels combining to enhance rapidly moving fires which destroyed hundreds of homes and caused multiple deaths in the Valley and Butte Fires. The Valley Fire is considered the 3rd most destructive wildfire in California history, the Butte Fire the 7th most destructive.

The toll

Deaths: 6
Injuries: 5
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS STO wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 9:00 AM PST, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 9:00 AM PST, 4 hours 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 AM PDT WED SEP 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will continue near record to record heat over
Interior Northern California with Thursday and Friday being the
hottest days. Some cooling over the weekend into early next week
with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure from the Desert Southwest extends over
California and is resulting in well above normal temperatures.
Triple digit heat will continue again today throughout most of the
Central Valley with highs forecast from the upper 90s to 104. Near
record heat expected in the Delta as marine layer has been squashed
to a few hundred feet and delta breeze remains light. Forecast high
temperatures are well below record values for the Northern and
Central Sacramento Valley, but places like KSAC (record 102) and
KSCK (record 103) are likely to be broken today.

Mostly clear skies with dry AMS will allow for good radiational
cooling overnight resulting in low temperatures dropping mostly into
the 60s for the Central Valley with lower 70s in portions of the
Northern San Joaquin Valley.

1000-500 mb thicknesses rise slightly Thursday resulting in a few
additional degrees of warming over some areas. More max temp records
likely to be broken Thursday in portions of the Southern Sacramento
and Northern San Joaquin Valleys including: KSCK (record 102), KSAC
(record 102), KMOD (record 101) and possibly downtown Sacramento
(record 105).

Upper ridge axis shifts slightly east Friday while 1000-500mb
thicknesses remain similar to Thursday. High temperatures Friday
expected to be similar to Thursday, plus or minus a few degrees.
Additional records likely to be broken Friday. Models similar in
developing meso upper low off the coast Friday which may help to
deepen marine layer. Also flow through Delta expected a little
stronger which may result in slightly cooler temperatures in the
Delta Friday.

Models are showing remnant moisture from weakening Hurricane Linda
entraining over the forecast area late Friday into the weekend.
Combination of increasing mid to high level cloudiness and deepening
upper meso low will result in some synoptic cooling over Interior
NorCal Sat/Sun. Upper 90s expected throughout much of the Central
Valley Sat with some mid 90s Sunday. Weak instability depicted over
the Coastal range Saturday afternoon in vicinity of the upper low
and over the higher terrain of the Northern Sierra Nevada, south of
highway 50.

PCH

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Medium-range models continue to struggle forecasting the moisture
from remnants of Linda as it moves toward California. The GFS and
Canadian are the more bullish solutions, bringing a fair bit of
convection to the Sierra Sunday into Monday. The ECMWF generates
less in the way of thunderstorms and generally favors the northern
mountains. With a stronger consensus, we've mentioned a slight
chance of thunderstorms along the Sierra Sunday and Monday
afternoons.

Otherwise, a gradual cooling trend is expected through the
extended period as a series of low pressure systems move through
the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures should still remain at or
above normal.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours with winds below 10 kt across
Valley TAF sites.

Dang

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Event by event

2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada

When: September 9, 1:26 PM PST to September 30, 11:59 PM PST
Where: West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada forecast zone
Deaths: 2 direct, 0 indirect
Injuries: 1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by: Park/Forest Service

There were 70,868 acres were burned in the Butte Fire, the 7th most destructive fire in California history. There were 475 residences and 343 outbuildings destroyed, and 45 structures damaged. In the fire there were 2 civilian fatalities and 1 injury. The cause has tentatively been attributed to a PG&E power line coming in contact with a live tree. Extensive damage was done to power lines and poles. PG&E has identified 505 locations where equipment needs to be fixed.

Wildfire, Clear Lake/Southern Lake County

When: September 12, 12:24 PM PST to September 30, 11:59 PM PST
Where: Clear Lake/Southern Lake County forecast zone
Deaths: 4 direct, 0 indirect
Injuries: 4 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by: Park/Forest Service

There were 76,067 acres burned in the Valley Fire. The Valley Fire was the 3rd most damaging fire in California history. At least 1958 structures were destroyed including; 1280 homes, 27 multi-family structures, 66 commercial properties, and 585 other minor structures such as outbuildings and sheds. There are 93 structures that have been damaged including: 41 homes, 7 commercial properties, and 45 other minor structures. In the fire there were 4 firefighters injured, 4 civilian fatalities. The cause of the fire is under investigation. Westerly winds gusting to over 40 mph were recorded in the area, causing a rapid surge in the early hours of the fire. One theory suggests that these winds may have been caused by a down burst from showers along the coast interacting with very dry air near the surface.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Wildfire, West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada	2015-09-09	80	Male	Permanent Home	Direct
Wildfire, West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada	2015-09-09	65	Male	Permanent Home	Direct
Wildfire, Clear Lake/Southern Lake County	2015-09-12	72	Female	Permanent Home	Direct
Wildfire, Clear Lake/Southern Lake County	2015-09-12		Male	Permanent Home	Direct
Wildfire, Clear Lake/Southern Lake County	2015-09-12	69	Male	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Direct
Wildfire, Clear Lake/Southern Lake County	2015-09-12		Male	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Direct

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in California in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in California, September 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597821, 597822.