Heavy precipitation from a thunderstorm fell on recently burned areas in southwest Modoc County, leading to localized flash flooding and a mudslide near Day California.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy precipitation from a thunderstorm fell on recently burned areas in southwest Modoc County, leading to localized flash flooding and a mudslide near Day California.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 1:21 PM PST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
221 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE, THE RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP AS THE SHOWERS OF THE
MORNING BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN RECORDED
OVER HARNEY COUNTY, AND WITH THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING
WINDS, WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN OUR
AREA SOON ENOUGH. ALL AREAS BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAVE AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE EAST SIDE AND MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA RATING MORE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THESE CELLS, ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. ALL IN ALL, NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WEATHER IS SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL NOT CHANGE, AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN LINE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE JUST OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE JUST IN
TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND GIVE US ANOTHER
DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL BE
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER WAVE, YOU GUESSED IT, IN TIME TO DO IT ALL
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY, BUT THIS LAST LOW WILL BY THAT TIME BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO
THE THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THUS, SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA SHOULD
BE ON THE DECLINE, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING. FROM NOW UNTIL
THEN, THE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH VARIATIONS IN THE DETAILS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ORBITING THE RESPECTIVE LOWS, AND THE MORE
LOCALIZED FACTORS SUCH AS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION
ZONE, ALWAYS A FACTOR WHEN DEALING WITH SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOWS.
HAVE UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAIN MODEL SOLUTIONS, AS THEY
ARE ARE DEALING WITH THE BULK OF THESE FACTORS IN A SIMILAR
MANNER.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SMALLER SCALE UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE ARE
SOME SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT OTHERS KEEP IT WELL TO THE NORTH. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE LEFT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE EXTENDED TERM. -BPN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY AGREEMENT IS THE
POSITION OF THE WEAK RIDGE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY FROM RUN TO RUN IN HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. YESTERDAY, THEY WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, TODAY
THEY ARE NOT. NOW THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND WHILE THE EC BRINGS THE LOW INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIOS, CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM IS LOW
AND FELT IT WAS BEST TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS IN THERE
PREVIOUSLY. OF NOTE, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD WITH
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
TO NORTHEAST CAL/NORTHWEST NEVADA. THIS ONLY REINFORCES THE LOW
CONFIDENCE LEVEL. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS WITH TERRAIN PARTLY OBSCURED. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES
INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 5-7Z
AT THE COAST AND 6-8Z INLAND. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT, TUESDAY 19 MAY 2015...SEAS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE FAR INLAND.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BORDERLINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER A SMALL SECTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS....SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE. AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR THESE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS. -SANDLER
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
BPN/MAP/RESPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
143 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW MOUNT SHASTA 41.35N 122.36W
05/19/2015 E0.47 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
OBSERVER LOCATION BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMThe Medford radar (KMAX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:35 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter in Day California reported a mudslide up against her house. This slide was associated with a burn scarred area and affected two houses. A sheriff deputy reported that clogged culverts caused mud and water to overflow the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in California, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 570722.