Wildfire in California, June 18 to 29, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1250 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SUBTLE
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TO THOSE WHO WOULD PREFER COOLER AND NOT SO DRY
WEATHER...UNFORTUNATELY...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE NOT SO GREAT NEWS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND EVEN A LITTLE WARMER IN SOME
AREAS OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERT DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
TO THE EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO DO NOT EXPECT BUILDUPS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ANYTIME REAL SOON. BESIDES THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR...ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED BE IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS IN
EASTERN KERN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY THOSE LEADING FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DESERT AREAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AS A SIDE NOTE...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE RAINFALL RECORD OF
ZERO INCHES FOR BOTH FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ON SUNDAY JUNE
21ST...OR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER...WILL REMAIN UNCHALLENGED. THIS
RECORD HAS STOOD FOR WELL OVER 100 YEARS AT BOTH LOCATIONS AS NO
RAIN HAS EVER FALLEN ON THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR DAILY HIGHS. A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AT THIS TIME...NOT ANTICIPATING INSTABILITY OR SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JUNE 18 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-18      106:1945     71:1909     73:2012     50:1908
KFAT 06-19      106:1962     72:1897     75:1918     51:1893
KFAT 06-20      110:1920     78:1897     75:1918     50:1908

KBFL 06-18      106:1945     77:2005     75:1982     42:1913
KBFL 06-19      107:1947     75:1923     75:1988     43:1913
KBFL 06-20      113:1920     82:1944     79:1981     47:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP/SR

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD