Heavy rainfall and melting wintry precipitation caused the Cache River at Patterson to rise above flood stage during the middle of the month.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall and melting wintry precipitation caused the Cache River at Patterson to rise above flood stage during the middle of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 11:39 AM CST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 .AVIATION... COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRIES IN EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO KHRO AND KBPK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO DRY AIR IT MOST OVERCOME AT THE SURFACE...THUS ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP. MAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING PRECIPITATION STARTING OFF AS A COLD RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX RATHER QUICKLY. KPBF AND KLLQ...ARE THE TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SLEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/ DISCUSSION... UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... AVIATION... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS. NOT MANY IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIP TO THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME IP...SN AND FZRA WILL BE SEEN...WITH THE FZRA LIMITED TO THE SERN SITES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SN AND IP WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN AR. ONLY LIGHT SN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE NRN SITES. SOME IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...ON MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...WINTER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SECOND ROUND COMING IN FOR LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED. WHAT EXACTLY THE SECOND WAVE DOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. LARGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...WILL ONLY MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THIS TIME FRAME. CONCERNING THE FIRST WAVE...FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP WILL START OFF AS GENERALLY RAIN WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET MIXED IN OVER THE NORTH. AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT DATA SUPPORT MAINLY SLEET AS THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH WHERE THE TRANSITION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE OUACHITAS. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE. A SECOND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SECOND WAVE IF THE NAM IS CORRECT. PATTERN QUIETS DOWN AFTER WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WAVES PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A WARY EYE WILL BE KEPT ON IT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITATION...THEY DO NOT WITH TEMPERATURES. READINGS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. FOR NOW...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 20S WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CRAWLING UPWARDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE...WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE ON THU INTO THU NIGHT. WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...DO EXPECT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. KEEP SOME POPS GOING FRI INTO SAT AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP...LIKELY IN THE WINTER VARIETY WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS TIME...EACH WAVE SHOULD ONLY BRING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS...THOUGH SOME CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...MED RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH TEMPS STARTING TO WARM. AS A RESULT...DROPPED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY NEED TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS ALTOGETHER FOR LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 37 17 25 19 / 30 50 20 10 CAMDEN AR 43 26 29 23 / 40 90 70 40 HARRISON AR 32 13 25 18 / 50 30 20 20 HOT SPRINGS AR 40 24 28 22 / 60 90 60 20 LITTLE ROCK AR 41 23 27 20 / 40 90 50 20 MONTICELLO AR 41 24 28 22 / 30 90 60 50 MOUNT IDA AR 40 24 28 22 / 80 90 70 20 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 33 13 26 19 / 50 30 10 20 NEWPORT AR 36 17 24 17 / 30 50 20 10 PINE BLUFF AR 40 23 26 21 / 30 90 60 40 RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 23 29 22 / 70 80 50 20 SEARCY AR 38 20 25 19 / 30 80 40 20 STUTTGART AR 41 21 26 20 / 30 80 50 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-LOGAN- MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-DALLAS-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON- LONOKE-MONROE-PIKE-PRAIRIE-WHITE-WOODRUFF. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA. && AVIATION...65
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 354 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231100- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 354 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DEVELOP FURTHER EAST BY SUNSET. ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AN AREA FROM OZONE IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY...TO SEARCY...SOUTH TO CLARENDON...THEN BACK WEST TO HOT SPRINGS AND MENA. EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE 3 OR MORE INCHES COULD BE SEEN. THE LESSER 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND RAIN WILL BE SEEN AT THE START OF THE EVENT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SLEET...THEN FINALLY TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SLEET AND SNOW MIX. EXPECT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARING 2 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AN AREA...GENERALLY FROM GLENWOOD...TO SHERIDAN...TO STUTTGART...SOUTH TO GILLETT...THEN BACK WEST TOWARDS FORDYCE AND GURDON. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPECT A RAIN...SLEET AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRANSITION TO ALL SLEET IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...MIXING WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES JUST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A UP TO AN INCH OF SLEET...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THESE AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN...TO STAR CITY...TO DUMAS. NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL SEE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. EVEN SO...SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN AN INCH...AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE SEEN...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL BEING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MORE WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THESE LATER WEEK SYSTEMS...AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF SNOW...SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE WELCOME. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 62
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall and melting heavy wintry precipitation caused the Cache River at Patterson to rise above flood stage during the afternoon hours on the 22nd. This river remained above flood stage through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 571317.