S. ushered moisture from Tropical Storm Kevin into southeast Arizona.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Southwest flow resulting from high pressure over the Texas panhandle and low pressure over the western U.S. ushered moisture from Tropical Storm Kevin into southeast Arizona. Numerous thunderstorms occurred, but wind damage and flash flooding was mainly confined to the far southeast Tucson Metro and adjacent rural areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 3, 8:15 AM MST, 5 hours 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 815 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM WEST OF BAJA/TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 15Z DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...WHERE VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.51 INCHES. KEMX RADAR ALREADY INDICATING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS (MAINLY LESS THAN 45DBZ) EXTENDING FROM ARIVACA...TO BENSON...TO SUNIZONA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED OVER FAR EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ELGIN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGH POP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY/TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...ONE SOUTHWEST OF NOGALES ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA...WITH THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE. THE OTHER IMPULSE WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SONORA...WITH MORE IMPRESSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE. ONGOING FORECAST TODAY FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREV DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z. ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8- 15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LEAST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 WEST TO NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND LEADING TO LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY AS LARGE SCALE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF KEVIN WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND ANY POTENTIAL WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE CONUS NORTH OF OUR AREA. BY THIS POINT KEVIN WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MOVING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE. STILL SOME STORMS AROUND BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY (PENDING ANY MORE IMPULSES IN THE FLOW THAT WE AREN'T PICKING UP YET). GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PICKING UP ON A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH (STILL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST)...AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. WE'LL PUSH THE FORECAST BACK INTO A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR THAT. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO A BLOCKING POSITION SOUTH OF US WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION DOMINATES THE COUNTRY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF US. THAT WOULD TEND TO SHUT THINGS DOWN AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT'S SEPTEMBER SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS. THERE'S ALREADY ANOTHER AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1132 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015
AZZ502>506-031915-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK AZ-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-
1132 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM MST...
AT 1129 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR SILVERBELL...SOUTHEAST TO THREE
POINTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LAT...LON 3196 11117 3218 11180 3247 11177 3262 11164
3269 11131 3230 11096
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 235DEG 13KT 3230 11126
ZELLThe Tucson radar (KEMX), 19 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:57 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds uprooted trees and snapped branches in the Rancho Del Lago neighborhood in Vail.
Heavy rain caused extreme flows in Davidson Wash, which was flowing 300 ft across. The wash flowed across Empire View Road, stranding residents on either side of it.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 602404, 602403.