High pressure was located over Texas with a ridge axis extending through the Great Basin and southerly flow of 10-15 kts over southern Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms occurred across much of southeast Arizona.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
High pressure was located over Texas with a ridge axis extending through the Great Basin and southerly flow of 10-15 kts over southern Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms occurred across much of southeast Arizona. A few storms produced severe winds and flash flooding, mainly in the Tucson Metro area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 9:55 AM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 955 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRYING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CONTINUED SE INTO WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 35N/134W...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS JUST NORTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 01/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.50 INCHES...AND MUCAPE YIELDED 934 J/KG. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 700-300 MB LAYER. VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON...WITH GRADUALLY LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. IN FACT...SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT WRN PIMA COUNTY OR AZZ501 WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERAL DEPICTION OF CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD FAVOR NLY/ NELY MOVEMENTS INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO MERIT THE INTRODUCTION OF BLOWING DUST INTO THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR NORTHWEST OF TUCSON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY AVERAGE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z. EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO DENOTE VCTS FOR THE KTUS/KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS GENERALLY FROM 20Z-22Z UNTIL AROUND 02/01Z OR SO. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. && .PREV DISCUSSION...SOME ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR TODAY'S FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE ISSUES WITH ANVIL SHADING OWING TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...AND THE WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED UP BY VARIOUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 05Z RUN OF THE HRRRX (EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) AND THE 00Z UNIV. OF AZ WRF-NAM SOLUTIONS PAINT A FAIRLY SIMILAR PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS ACROSS PARTS OF PINAL...PIMA...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OUT EAST. THESE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY LINE UP WITH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS WHICH SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY LINING UP FROM TUCSON AND POINTS WEST...EFFECTIVELY WITHIN THE ZONE OF HIGHER PW AIR AS MENTIONED EARLIER. FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A RE-ORGANIZATION PHASE AS THE UPPER-HIGH RECONSOLIDATES...EVENTUALLY NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY BY TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO PUMP MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT SOMEWHAT BETTER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE...BACK INTO THE REGION. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE THAT IS THE MONSOON 2015 CONTINUES... && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:14 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
KALK reported wind gusts of 61 mph and 67 mph at 1213 LST and 1216 LST, respectively.
Thunderstorm winds knocked down a tree and broke a tree limb 6 inches in diameter along Irvington in southern Tucson.
Road closures occurred due to flash flooding in the northwest Tucson metro, including Overton Rd at the Canada del Oro Wash, Thornydale Rd at Freer Drive and Oasis Drive, and Linda Vista between Thornydale Rd and Camino de Oeste.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597608, 597609, 597610, 597611.