Blizzard in Alaska, February 7 to 8, 2015

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
457 AM AKST SAT FEB 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE THE SHORT
TERM AS WELL AS THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM. A BLEND OF INHERITED
FORECAST AND THE GFS PROVIDED THE BASE FOR CURRENT FORECASTPACKAGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 552 DAM BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ANADYR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE WEST AN 493 DAM LOW
OVER THE YUKON CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND WEST TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND
MONDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPS SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE GULF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR.

MODELS VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z SOUNDING 850 TEMPERATURE
WITH AROUND MINUS 23.5 OBSERVED AND IN THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. FORECASTED 850 TEMPERATURES FOR FAIRBANKS BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 25 BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A SLOW
RECOVERY IS NOTED BEGINNING MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING 850
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BACK TO AROUND 18 BELOW AND
AROUND 15 BELOW TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TO NEAR NORMAL
BY MID WEEK. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH OVER THE
WESTERN CANADA AND PUSHES WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE YUKON AND
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR.

COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POOR INTO THE INTERIOR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE 40S BELOW AND A FEW IN THE 50S BELOW. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AS WINDS
OVER SUMMITS AND THROUGH THE PASSES COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SUMMITS IN ZONES 222 AND
221 FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES FOR WINDCHILL IF WINDS DEVELOP
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT IS RACING EAST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE BUT WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES. WIND OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE ARE
COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN
ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH.

ON THE WEST COAST PERSISTENT WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FROM THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTH ARE PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND WINDS REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT...WIND
CHILLS WILL AGAIN DROP TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

ON THE SURFACE COLD TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND BASINS WILL
PROVE DIFFICULT TO EXPEL THIS WEEK WITH ONLY WEAK FLOW NOTED
THROUGH THE MID TERM...HOWEVER FEBRUARY DIURNAL TRENDS OF 15 TO 20
DEGREES SHOULD HELP WEAKEN INTERIOR INVERSIONS DURING THE
DAY...OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG AS WARM AIR
BUILDS IN ALOFT BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

CCC FEB 15