Tornado in Wisconsin, July 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.  JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING.  BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME.  AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE.  THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY.  SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...THOUGH
THUNDER HAS ENDED AS MORE STABLE AIR MASS WORKING IN. CLEARING
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH...THOUGH CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE U P. CIGS WITH THESE CLOUDS
VFR. WILL MONITOR TAFS TO ADD IF THEY STAY TOGETHER AS MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WI. NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
EVENING. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL
CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-281945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....BUT IT IS VERY
UNLIKELY ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-281945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FROM SHEBOYGAN TO ALGOMA AND POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL CREATE CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MPC/JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
156 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WIZ022-272000-
DOOR-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STURGEON BAY
156 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOOR
PENINSULA...

AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS DOOR COUNTY HAD
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN EGG HARBOR AND FISH CREEK. THE
STORMS IN THIS AREA WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...AND LIKELY MAKING
TRAVEL ON HIGHWAY 42 DIFFICULT. TRAVEL ON HIGHWAY 57 IN THE
BAILEYS HARBOR AREA WAS ALSO LIKELY BEING AFFECTED.

THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD...MOVING INTO THE EGG
HARBOR AND JACKSONPORT AREAS BY 215 PM. CONDITIONS IN THESE
LOCATIONS SHOULD WORSEN...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FARTHER NORTH.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME STANDING WATER ON
AREA ROADWAYS.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKOWRONSKI