Washington, 2014

Avalanche in Washington, March 22, 2014

March 22, 2014 · NWS SEW · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Avalanche started on the south side of Granite mountain by skiers around 5300 feet. They were carried down to about 2300 feet.

The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

Avalanche started on the south side of Granite mountain by skiers around 5300 feet. They were carried down to about 2300 feet. One survived one found dead the next morning.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 22, 2:55 PM PST, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 22, 2:55 PM PST, 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 PM PDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH BY NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING MILD WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL SHORTWAVE SCOOTING ACROSS SRN B.C. TODAY WILL
BRING MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVNG. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
EAST...A SHARPENING UPPER RIDGE OUT NEAR 130W WILL TURN OUR FLOW
ALOFT MORE NWLY...PUSHING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO ERN WA AND
INITIATING LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER WRN WA. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL CROSS WRN WA ON MON MRNG...REACHING ERN WA ON MON AFTN. WITH
LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ON MON AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHERLY...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS SO
FAR THIS YEAR. COULD SEE QUITE A FEW LOWLAND TEMPS REACHING THE MID
60S...THAT IS IF THICKENING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT BLOT OUT
TOO MUCH OF THE SUN'S WARMING RAYS.

HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MON NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AT THE NOSE OF THE WARMING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. HOWEVER...
THE NAM KEEPS PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. HAVE GONE WITH 20-30 POPS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ON MON TO COVER THIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ONSHORE ON
MON NGT...PUSHING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUE...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COULD
EVEN GET A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES.     HANER

.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS
WRN WA ON WED AND THU. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING. MODELS SHOW
SOME FLAT UPPER RIDGING ARRIVING ON THU NGT OR FRI MRNG...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP EXPECTED.

BY NEXT SAT...A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH OUT AROUND 140W WILL
POINT ENERGETIC SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON
WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...AND WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE.    HANER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MASSIVE LANDSLIDE APPEARS TO HAVE BLOCKED THE NORTH
FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER JUST EAST OF OSO. A RIVER GAGE JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLOCKAGE DROPPED FROM 3.1 FEET TO 0.9 FEET IN THE
HOUR AFTER THE SLIDE...AND IT HAS SINCE DROPPED TO 0.3 FEET. THE
GAGE AT ARLINGTON IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A SHARP DROP IN THE STAGE AS
WATER GETS STUCK UPSTREAM OF THE SLIDE. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING TO
COVER THE SCENARIO OF UPSTREAM FLOODING AS WATERS FIRST GETS BACKED
UP BY THE SLIDE...THEN THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WHERE BACKED-UP WATER
SUDDENLY GETS RELEASED DOWNSTREAM.

HAVE ASKED AUTHORITIES FOR INFO ON HEIGHT OF THE RIVER BLOCKAGE.
ONCE ARMED WITH THIS PIECE OF INFO...THE RFC WILL ATTEMPT TO RUN A
WORST-CASE DAM BREAK SIMULATION TO GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOOD POTENTIAL...IN CASE THE BLOCKAGE WERE TO RELEASE
SUDDENLY. WHEN THIS HAPPENS...WE WILL UPDATE THE FLOOD WARNING AND
DO OUR BEST TO UPDATE THE RIVER FORECAST STAGE AT ARLINGTON THAT
SHOWS UP ON OUR AHPS WEBPAGE. IN THE MEANTIME...FOLKS DOWNSTREAM
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE RIVER IN CASE A SUDDEN RELEASE OF WATER
OCCURS WITH AN ENSUING QUICK RISE TO FLOOD.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVY RAIN
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...MARCH 28-29. IT WOULD LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
HANER

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THROUGH
SOUTHERN B.C. THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE
WA/CANADIAN BORDER. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR DRY/STABLE WEATHER. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MON
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INLAND
ON TUE. 33

&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 22, 1:53 PM PST, 1 hour 52 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
253 PM PDT SAT MAR 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      OSO                     48.27N 121.93W
03/22/2014                   SNOHOMISH          WA   NEWSPAPER

            *** 2 FATAL, 5 INJ *** REPORT OF LANDSLIDE OCCURING NEAR
            THE TOWN OF OSO AROUND 1047 AM. SLIDE HAS AFFECTED AROUND
            15 HOUSES...COVERING BOTH LANES OF STATE ROUND 530...AND
            HAS DAMMED UP THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER.
            THERE ARE ABOUT 5 INJURIES... AND TWO DEATHS HAVE BEEN
            CONFIRMED AS OF 240 PM.

&&

GRUB
Local storm report, Mar 22, 1:59 PM PST, 1 hour 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
259 PM PDT SAT MAR 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      OSO                     48.27N 121.93W
03/22/2014                   SNOHOMISH          WA   NEWSPAPER

            *** 2 FATAL, 5 INJ *** REPORT OF LANDSLIDE OCCURING NEAR
            THE TOWN OF OSO AROUND 1047 AM. SLIDE HAS AFFECTED AROUND
            15 HOUSES...COVERING BOTH LANES OF STATE ROUTE 530...AND
            HAS DAMMED UP THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER.
            THERE ARE ABOUT 5 INJURIES... AND TWO DEATHS HAVE BEEN
            CONFIRMED AS OF 240 PM.

&&

GRUB

Event by event

1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.

Avalanche, West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes

When
March 22, 3:45 PM PST
Where
West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Park/Forest Service

Avalanche started on the south side of Granite mountain by skiers around 5300 feet. They were carried down to about 2300 feet. One survived, one found dead the next morning.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Avalanche, West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes2014-03-22MaleOutside/Open AreasDirect

What these are

Avalanche
A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, March 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 499440.