Rip Current in Washington, July 3, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PDT THU JUL  3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY SPREAD A DEEP LAYER OF MARINE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT ARE FINALLY THINNING OUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BRUSH THE
AREA WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES NEAR
ASTORIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN ABOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL HAVE A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING MODEST WARMING BUT KEEP A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AROUND AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...THE DEEP LAYER OF MARINE STRATUS THAT
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON EARLIER TODAY
PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS BEGINNING TO ERODE SLOWLY. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE MODELS SUGGEST A FAIRLY COMPLICATED LOW CLOUD PATTERN
REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...WITH SOME HIGHER BASED STRATOCUMULUS
FORMING/SPREADING SOUTH FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES...AND SOME LOWER STRATUS SPREADING INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARD PORTLAND. THE CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID.
THEN EXPECT EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES...GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN SOME INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BREAKING OFF OUT NEAR 150W TO
160W AND SPREADING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
NEAR THE COAST.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUD REGIME ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS INLAND MAY
GRADUALLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRUSHING THE COAST
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH...AND
INCREASING THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 580S BUT THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
LIGHT WESTERLY...SO EXPECT A WARM UP BUT WITH SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT
THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO EXCESSIVELY HOT. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH PRIMARY DECK HOLDING AT 4000
TO 4500 FT WITH HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE. FEW POCKETS OF MVFR NEAR 3000 FT
BUT THESE MOSTLY OVER SW WASHINGTON TO ALONG COLUMBIA RIVER FOR NEXT
FEW HRS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD THIS EVENING WHEN CLOUDS BECOME
SCATTERED TO FEW. CLOUDS WILL REFORM LATER TONIGHT AGAINST CASCADES
BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THU AM. MVFR CLOUDS RETURN TO
THE COAST...AND WILL PUSH UP COLUMBIA RIVER...REACHING KPDX AROUND
12Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLOUD CIGS 4500 FT WILL SLOWLY BREAK
UP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS REFORM BUT
STILL VFR. STILL EXPECTING THAT ANOTHER DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL PUSH
UP COLUMBIA RIVER LATER TONIGHT...AFFECTING KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z FRI.			 ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE NE PAC WHILE THERMAL LOW PRES REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NW CALIF. N
TO NW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.