Flash Flood and Flood in Texas, September 24 to 25, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Any additional rain in these areas will worsen
conditions as the ground is already saturated. The region is under
generally north to northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge centered
across the four corners region and a trough over the Upper Midwest
today.  This upper flow pattern is allowing for shortwaves to move
over the area with much of the upper lift being over the eastern and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  A slight chance of
thunderstorms is across the area for today as a result.  Not much is
expected to change on Thursday as enhanced lift remains over the
area so a slight chance of rain will continue.

On Friday, a remnant upper low from the upper trough that was over
the Upper Midwest will be over the region.  Upper lift will be
enhanced over areas generally south and west of the Pecos River, so
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms for this area on Friday.
The upper lift will start to decrease over the area on Saturday so
chances of precipitation will decrease with best chances being
across the higher terrain.  An upper trough will move over the
western conus on Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus
under upper ridging aloft.  This will continue to result in drying
conditions for the area.  Early next week, the models move the
western conus upper trough eastward while maintaining the upper
low/trough near the Mississippi River.  The models differ on the
position of these upper troughs going into the early to middle of
next week but generally expect the two troughs to come closer
together and perhaps begin to merge.  The GFS is producing
precipitation during the early to middle part of next week across
the area as a result of the approaching trough but the ECMWF is
keeping conditions dry.  Expect temperatures through the forecast
period to remain within 5 degrees of normal since no cold fronts are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  80  59  80  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  82  59  82  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  80  57  80  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  65  85  65  86  /  20  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  83  60  83  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  76  55  74  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   60  78  56  78  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   56  77  51  75  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  82  59  82  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  63  82  59  81  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                    64  83  61  84  /  20  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

10/80

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-251915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
207 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014 /107 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EDDY COUNTY...WHERE THE
PECOS RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES REMAIN ELEVATED...AND NUMEROUS ROADS
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE PECOS RIVER AND VICINITY FROM ORLA TO INTERSTATE
20.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RIO GRANDE IN THE
VICINITY OF PRESIDIO DUE TO RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN
MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND