Wildfire in Texas, April 27 to 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL TAF SITES OVER THE LAST
HOUR. DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 19-20Z WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND CLEAR OUT THE FEW REMAINING LOW
CLOUDS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFTS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS MAY PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON TO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...BUT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12-16Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. ALSO MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SUNRISE GROUND FOG...BUT SHOULD
NOT LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK MINOR UPDATE TO SOME OF THE GRIDDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE ANY
OF THE TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS. SATELLITE AND METARS SHOW THE DRY LINE
HAS PUSHED THROUGH DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...AND IS ABOUT ON A LINE
FROM BURNET TO JOHNSON CITY TO EAGLE PASS. MOISTURE IS QUICKLY
ERODING AS SEEN BY CLOUDS THINNING RAPIDLY WEST OF I-35. KEWX WIND
PROFILE SHOWS NW WINDS IN THE 5-8KFT LEVEL. THE DOWNSLOPING WEST
WINDS WILL CREATE A RAPID WARMUP UNDER THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. RECORD HEAT IS STILL ON TRACK. WILL HOLD ONTO A SILENT
10 POP IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR...BUT CHANCES OF SEEING
ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA ARE PRETTY MUCH DONE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/

AVIATION...
SE-LY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW THE STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY FOG TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS. A DRY LINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE LOW CIGS AND FOG TO RAPIDLY LIFT/BREAK-OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AOB 10 KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL REPLACE THE EARLY CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED MID-LEVEL DRYING
TRENDS HAVE RESULTED IN LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...
AS THE SPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO PULL TODAYS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EAST WITH EACH UPDATE. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING WILL
BRING THE HOTTEST DAYS SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE READINGS SHOULD APPROACH TRIPLE
DIGITS. A SIMILAR WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR CLIMATE
UPDATE LOCATIONS ARE ALL IN JEOPARDY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WITH
THE SIGNIFICANT DRYING PATTERN...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
BE PLEASANT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AFTER MONDAYS HEAT...COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYTIME TUESDAY
WILL SIGNAL THE SUBTLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE FROM AIR POOLING BEHIND
THE LARGE CENTRAL US UPPER LOW. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE
REINFORCE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED MILD WEATHER LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED
TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP WITH THE DRY TRENDS GIVEN THE POOR AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
ON A MORE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE RFW AREA FOR TODAY AND MENTION NEAR CRITICAL FOR
WESTERN AREAS MONDAY. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS PLANNED FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ANALYSIS FROM FUEL DRYNESS
AND RECENT RAINFALL AS COMPARED WITH NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PAST
30 AND 60 DAYS SUGGESTS THAT ALL COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DRY FUELS THAT WOULD CARRY FIRE.

CLIMATE... /RECORDS IN JEOPARDY/
          SUN    MON
AUS     94/1961 93/1955
ATT     95/1971 94/1955
SAT     96/1899 96/1937
DRT     98/2002 99/2002

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  63  93  59  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  93  60  94  58  86 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  61  96  59  88 /  -   -   -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  60  91  55  82 /  -   -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           95  63  96  63  89 /  -   -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  61  92  57  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  61  99  58  93 /  -   -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  61  94  58  86 /  -   -   -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  65  93  61  86 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       96  64  97  62  90 /  -   -   -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           97  65  98  60  92 /  -   -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
511 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-280300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
511 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A DRYLINE WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY BRINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
THE RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.