Flooding in Oregon, March 9 to 11, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 PM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS CONTINUING TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS BACK TOWARD REDMOND. A DISTURBANCE OFF
THE PACNW COAST WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR USHERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AND THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH SO THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID. POPS WERE
INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ALSO FOR HYDROLOGY THE RAIN
WAS FILLING RIVERS WITH RAPIDLY RUNNING WATER AND THE RIVER AT TROY
IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LCL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES KRDM...KBDN...KPDT...KALW. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 422 PM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW
THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN ACHIEVED AND SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO FORM. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
MORE STEADY RAIN. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION BACK OF
TO SHOWERS. COULD EVEN SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. DO EXPECT
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD THOUGH A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND AFFECT OUR AREA AT
TIMES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE NORTH THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LITTLE EFFECT HERE ASIDE FROM BREEZY WINDS IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. IT SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WAVE WILL ARRIVE AND THE
MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET. THE GFS BRINGS
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AND
THE ECMWF HAS IT JUST BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 6000
FEET. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE REBUILDS WITH ANOTHER
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IT TO THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY AND THE
REST OF THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  52  31  52 /  80  80  20   0
ALW  46  53  35  52 /  70  80  20   0
PSC  45  58  34  57 /  20  30  10   0
YKM  38  54  30  53 /  10  20   0   0
HRI  44  57  33  56 /  30  50  10   0
ELN  38  50  29  50 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  39  45  23  52 /  90  50  10   0
LGD  41  44  29  46 / 100 100  30   0
GCD  42  43  29  48 / 100  90  30   0
DLS  42  54  33  55 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

97/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1047 PM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014

ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508-WAZ520-110600-
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-
1047 PM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OREGON...NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT RUN
OFF IS RESULTING IN RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREAS LISTED
ABOVE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE REFER
TO NWS HAZARD PRODUCT ID PDXFFAPDT FOR MORE DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE GRANDE RONDE RIVER AT TROY
AND THE UMATILLA RIVER AT GIBBON. IN ADDITION A SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OREGON
BLUE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING PARTS OF UMATILLA AND UNION COUNTIES.  PLEASE
REFER TO NWS HAZARD PRODUCT ID PDXFLSPDT AND PDXFLWPDT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD
WATCH...FLOOD WARNINGS...AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT MONDAY.