Wildfire in Oregon, July 14 to 29, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
325 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE WASHINGTON BLUES, THE ELKHORNS AND WALLOWA COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT, THEN SLIDE TO CENTRAL
MONTANA TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER AN DRYING WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY, BUT NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. THE MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MAINLY FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE
MAY JUST ENOUGH OVER THE WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS WILL INDICATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THESE TWO AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 65 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 1500
FEET MSL. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORIES. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ENHANCE NORTHWEST FLOW TO
THE AREA.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS THIS LOW CLIPS THE AREA.  BUT THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE AZ/NM AREA...AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP THE
SURFACE GRADIENTS AND ALLOW FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY.  MODELS HINT AT LITTLE PATCHES OF MOISTURE THAT MAY
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT INSTABILITY UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE LACKING.  SO STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED.  BY MONDAY MODELS INDICATE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND...SHIFTING THE
FLOW TO SOUTHWEST.  HAVE NOT YET ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IF MODELS HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
RUNS...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
MOUNTAINS. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT
THROUGH 06Z. WEST OF THESE TAF SITE CAN EXPECT FEW CLOUDS TO CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ALL TAF SITES SKC AFTER 06Z. WINDS AT KDLS WILL BE
10-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30KTS...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS AT OTHER SITES
THROUGH 06Z...THEN DIMINISH 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.  WEBER

&&

.FIRE WX...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. FURTHERMORE...ON
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND PERSISTENT LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN COMBINATION WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE THEREFORE
BEING ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES...INCLUDING THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE....AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  99  66 101 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  71 100  72 103 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  68 103  68 105 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  68  99  67 100 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  65 102  66 103 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  65 101  64 100 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  51  96  54  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  62  93  58  96 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  59  99  59 100 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  67 100  65  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING ORZ041.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING ORZ044-503-507-508.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ041-044-507.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING ORZ509.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING ORZ505-506-510-511.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING WAZ024-521.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING WAZ026>029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

90/89/89/82

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1107 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             3 SE BEND               44.04N 121.26W
07/13/2014  M1.00 INCH       DESCHUTES          OR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED DAMAGED GARDEN.

&&

HULL