Wildfire in Oregon, July 13 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN PACIFIC SYSTEM, ROUGHLY NEAR 42N/129W,
WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TODAY, THEN INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN ALONG THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES, AND WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND
EAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS EVENING, THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO MOST OTHER AREAS. CENTRAL OREGON
WILL SEE AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL START OUT PRODUCING LIMITED RAIN, BUT WILL MOISTEN WITH
TIME. SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 45-60 KT RANGE OVER CENTRAL OREGON. AS
SUCH LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, WHILE A
STRAY SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HOT AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
UPDATES THIS MORNING MAINLY CONSISTED OF ADJUSTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO
105 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN SOME HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A COOLING TREND
OF BTWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES A DAY DUE TO A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THRU
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ELEVATED BREEZES. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ON THE MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY. A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CAUSING OUR TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES BRINGING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK ONCE
MORE. THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM OR HOT AND
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR PERIODS DUE TO -TSRA OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.  EXPECT THAT CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 8-12KFT...AND MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 5KFT UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
10-15KTS...WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS 25-45KTS POSSIBLE UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE REMOVED PREVAILING -TSRA AND REPLACED WITH
VCTS...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP AFTER /03Z...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO BE CERTAIN OF THE PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WX...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
COMBINE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CASCADES. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
INTO A NUMBER OF OTHER FIRE ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
THE STORMS INITIALLY STARTING OUT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL...THERE IS AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF NEW WILDFIRES. THEREFORE...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR FIRE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  69  99  67 /  10  30  20  10
ALW 104  74 100  72 /  10  30  20  10
PSC 105  71 103  69 /  10  30  20  10
YKM  99  72 100  69 /  10  30  20   0
HRI 104  70 105  67 /  10  30  20  10
ELN 103  64 102  60 /  10  30  20  10
RDM  96  57  96  55 /  40  30  10  10
LGD  99  64  96  61 /  10  20  20  10
GCD 100  64  98  63 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  97  70 100  69 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     ORZ041-044-503-505-506-508.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING ORZ050-502.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY
     ORZ049-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ041-044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ509-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ510.

WA...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     WAZ024-029.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY
     WAZ028-030-521.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ024-027>029.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY
     WAZ026-027.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ026.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY
     WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

90/97/89/90