Flood in Oregon, February 15 to 18, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
912 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRE HOSE REMAINS WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THOUGH THE
NIGHT. MEDFORD HAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
RECORDED 0.25 OF AN INCH BETWEEN 4-5 PM PST AND 12 HOUR TOTAL OF
1.14 INCHES ENDING AT 4 PM PST. ALSO FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON
LITTLE BUTTE CREEK IN EAGLE POINT NEAR HARNISH WAYSIDE. NUMEROUS
FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN CAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTIES. WHILE THE NORTH COAST SHOULD SEE DECREASING
RAINFALL RATES. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 5000 FEET THIS EVENING AND THE LATEST
WEB CAMS SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING AT DIAMOND LAKE. AS
A RESULT HAVE LOWERED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TO INCLUDE AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET OVERNIGHT,
SO DIAMOND LAKE AREA SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.

IF THAT WEREN'T ENOUGH. WE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
STARTING LATE SATURDAY MORNING. DETAILS ON THESE CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/00Z TAF CYCLE.

A STRONG FRONT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS IN PLACE NEAR
THE BORDER BETWEEN OREGON AND CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
OREGON CASCADES AND THE AREA AROUND 10 MILES NORTH OF KLAMATH
FALLS/KLMT. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 7000
FT MSL.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
AND LOWEST CEILINGS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. LATER IN THE MORNING, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING...UP TO 8500 FT MSL WHILE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY WITH IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOTH FRONTS. ALSO, THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS CONTINUING AND WINDS AND SEAS ARE
INCREASING THIS EVENING. BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO STORM
FORCE AT 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AND THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A HIGH WEST SWELL BRIEFLY BECOMING DOMINANT AS SEAS
REMAIN HIGH. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND
WITH GALES LIKELY DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASING SEAS...LIKELY TO PEAK NEAR 20 FT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TO
VERY HIGH SEAS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION IMPACTS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS JOSEPHINE AND
JACKSON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
INSIDE THIS BAND RAINFALL RATES ARE HIGHEST. 12 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN CURRY, COOS, JOSEPHINE, AND JACKSON COUNTIES HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN 1-3 INCHES. ONE VERY RELIABLE SPOTTER IN THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY REPORTED 4.8 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT
3 PM PST. ALL OF THIS RAIN IS CAUSING CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE,
AND WE HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF CREEKS AND DITCHES BANKFUL, WITH A
A REPORT OF MINOR CREEK FLOODING ON SITKUM CREEK IN COOS COUNTY
AND ANOTHER CREEK IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY.

TONIGHT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL SLIP JUST A BIT MORE
TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN JUST A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET MORE. SNOW FLAKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON ROAD
CAMERAS IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE
BASE OF MOUNT ASHLAND MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE CRATER AND DIAMOND
LAKE AREAS ON AVAILABLE CAMERAS. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
CRATER LAKE AREA, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS DOWN TO NEAR 5000 FEET.

PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE FOR DETAILS REGARDING FLOOD PRODUCTS AS
WELL AS THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT. IN SHORT, ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN THE CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND COOS COAST.
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH UP
TO 10.5 INCHES IN THE CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS. MORE SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND SOME
MAIN STEMS WILL ALSO FLOOD.

ONE OTHER MAJOR POINT IS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A BENT
BACK OCCLUDED FRONT WITH CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ONTO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST, BOTH THE GFS40 AND
NAM12 SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH A FEATURE, AS COLD AIR AT 500MB
OUTRUNS THE 700MB WARM SECTOR, THIS COULD GIVE RISE TO SLANTWISE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN SQUALLY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ON THE COAST FROM ABOUT GOLD BEACH
NORTHWARD. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR, THIS BOUNDARY WOULD STAND A
CHANCE OF RIDING OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD AND SHORT
TERM WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. SUCH PAST EVENTS USUALLY HAVE
OCCURRED IN MARCH AND HAVE RESULTED IN MANY DOWNED TREES. SO
BEWARE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BTL

WIND HAZARDS...WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN IN MOST SPOTS TODAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, WHICH ALLOWED US TO DROP ALL
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR WIND FOR TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN THE
TWO. THE MODELS HAVEN'T CHANGED A GREAT DEAL WITH THIS STORM, SO
NEITHER HAS OUR FORECAST. LAST NIGHT'S SYSTEM HAD SOME WIND, BUT IT
WAS MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR TOMORROW.

A SUB-980 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TOMORROW AND THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT JUST
OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN WITH LAST NIGHT'S SYSTEM, AND AS A RESULT, PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TIGHTER. IN ADDITION, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE COMING IN WITH A
NEGATIVE TILT AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF WINDS ALOFT TO TAP INTO. THERE
MAY ALSO BE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND. THIS IS A
GREAT SETUP FOR A COASTAL JET TO FORM JUST OFFSHORE AND THUS HIGH
WINDS ARE CERTAIN OVER THE WATERS, THE COASTAL HEADLANDS, AND
ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO INDICATED ON THE EAST SIDE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA.

FOR ALL THESE REASONS, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE ALL THE EXISTING
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE WINDS MIX DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS, CERTAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE, BUT ALSO ON THE WEST
SIDE. I DON'T EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN ALL THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS, BUT THIS IS A GOOD SCENARIO TO SEE WINDS MIX DOWN AT
LEAST INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR ASHLAND. THE WINDS ARE NOT ALIGNED PERFECTLY TO SEE
STRONG WINDS IN MEDFORD PROPER, BUT DECIDED TO INCLUDE ALL THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS BECAUSE IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH. WINDS WILL RAMP DOWN PRETTY
QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
AROUND 5000 FEET ON TUESDAY, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND DROP SNOW LEVELS TO 2500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS
AS LOW AS 2000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
PRODUCE A GOOD DUMP OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET
TUESDAY, BUT DEEP, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS SHOULD
KEEP MODERATE SNOW GOING IN THE CASCADES EVEN AS SNOW LEVELS DROP
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME IMPACTS FROM SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE/FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND THIS SYSTEM PACKS ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LIKE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN SNOWS WITH IMPACTS LIKELY, POSSIBLY EVEN ON THE LOWER
PASSES AT SOME POINT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER US ON FRIDAY
AND MAY KEEP US DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE A SHORT
REPRIEVE AS THE TRAIN OF NORTH PACIFIC STORMS LOOKS TO BE SIMPLY
RELOADING AT THAT POINT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023-025>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-024.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-025-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

MAP/MAP/MAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1029 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
02/14/2014  M3.00 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 20 HOURS 40 MINUTES
            OBSERVER LOCATION 1 MI S OF OBRIEN

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1148 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W WILLIAMS            42.22N 123.29W
02/14/2014  M3.14 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES.

&&

BPN