Wildfire in Oregon, August 1 to 16, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
145 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS AND SMOKE (AIR QUALITY) ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST OREGON WAS IMPACTED BY SMOKE LAST YEAR
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AS LIGHTNING-INITIATED FIRES BROKE OUT THE
MORNING OF JULY 26, 2013. AT THAT TIME THE WORST SMOKE WAS OVER
THE REGION FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. TODAY IS A REMINDER THAT FIRE
WEATHER IS THE "SEVERE" WEATHER IN THIS REGION DURING THE SUMMER.

WE HAVE A NUMBER OF BIG EVENTS OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE CAPE BLANCO COUNTRY MUSIC FESTIVAL
NEAR CAPE BLANCO STATE PARK, DUNEFEST IN WINCHESTER BAY, AND THE
CASCADE LAKES RELAY RUN FROM DIAMOND LAKE TO SILVER LAKE TO LA
PINE AND BEND. THE TWO COASTAL EVENTS WILL HAVE COOL TEMPERATURES,
CLOUDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT DUNEFEST, AND BOTH EVENTS WILL
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS. FOR TODAY, THE RELAY RUN WILL HAVE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSHERIC INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES AND OREGON EAST SIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LIGHTNING TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING BUT THIS
PATTERN WILL BE PERSISTENT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THE
LARGE FIRES IN FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE OREGON-
CALIFORNIA BORDER COULD INITIATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORM WITH
PYROCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING.

HAVE CONTINUED AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT EXPECT THAT SMOKE WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS NO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOLING WILL OCCUR.

THE PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE MONSOONAL AS THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF
ALL SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
GFS PUSHES THIS MOISTURE FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF. THE MODELS
BOTH SHOW INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
LESS INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE
MONSOON AIRMASS ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS COMBINED
WITH SMOKE COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN FORECAST SO
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED.
SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/18Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE
EARLY EVENING WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH AND NEAR
BROOKINGS SOUTHWARD.  INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL IN
AREAS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON.
CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 AM PDT 1 AUG 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THE GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO POSTPONE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. IN ANY
CASE...THE GALES WILL BE LOW END.
CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.